Argentina’s wheat harvest this year will likely come in at 17.5 million tons. The latest wheat crop forecast for the 2022/23 season would mark Argentina’s lowest level since 2015/16 season.

Argentina 2022/23 season wheat production is lowered to 17.5 million tons as dry conditions continue to impact yield potential. Following a year of record production, Argentina’s wheat crop is now forecast at its lowest level since 2015/16 season. With limited exportable supplies, Argentina wheat exports (Dec/Nov) are lowered 1 million tons to 12 million.

In 2021/22 season, Argentina’s record crop is forecast to allow for record exports of 16.3 million tons. While the global wheat market reeled from supply shocks caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Argentina absorbed some global import demand with its ample supplies and relatively competitive prices. Importers in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia in particular struggled to find affordable wheat as Black Sea supplies were constrained and global prices skyrocketed. As a result, Argentina’s market share expanded relative to Ukraine and Russia in Indonesia, Nigeria, and other large import markets. Argentina shipped record monthly volumes of its 2021/22 crop in December, February, March, April, and May. In doing so, Argentina quickly exhausted its supplies and its export quotes soared from $297/ton in January to $492/ton in June. 

Looking forward, Argentine export quotes typically decline in November as its wheat crop is harvested. Nevertheless, poor production prospects for 2022/23 and increased competition from the Black Sea and Canada should ensure lost market share and diminished exports in 2022/23. USDA