The International Grains Council will organise its Conference on the 12th and 13th June 2023 in London after a very unusual marketing year 22/23 focusing its agenda on the challenges of importing countries in a volatile market.  The challenges have been dominated by the renewals of the grains corridor, financial limitations by the net-importing countries and a global recess of wheat prices. A roundtable discussion with Ministers of agriculture, trade and the most relevant international organisation will help to strengthen the dialogue between producers and importers. The 3 areas of discussion will be the digitalisation of trade, trade finance and the nexus productivity/ sustainability. Visit the conference website to know more about it: https://www.igc.int/en/conference/programme.aspx

Publishing its first full set of projections for 2023/24 world supply (production plus opening stocks), the International Grains Council forecast to edge higher on year to year for grains (2,283 m t.) but, with an assumed uplift in demand, carryover inventories are forecast to tighten again. After two consecutive declines, total trade could expand slightly by 1% in the coming season.

Particularly on wheat, another large global wheat harvest is expected in 2023/24. Based on projections for a modest pullback in harvested area and, with productivity seen retreating from the prior year’s record, total output is tentatively forecast at 787m t (-2%), about 2% more than average. Cumulative production in the eight major exporters is seen 14m t lower y/y, at 387m t.

Despite some concerns about soil moisture deficiencies in western and central Europe, most notably in France, EU all-wheat production could rise to 136.6m t (+1%). In contrast, recent precipitation was useful in Southern Russia and little frost damage are expected. But due to reduced plantings, the total output for Russia is projected to contract to 82.8m t (-13%).

In North America, the recent rains brought some welcome relief to HRW crops in parts of the southern US Plains, albeit with conditions still unusually poor in Kansas. With most eastern states unaffected by drought, the outlook for SRW crops is comparatively better. Despite expectations for another year of above-average winter abandonment and only a modest uplift in spring acreage, all-wheat harvested area is projected 8% higher y/y, at 15.5m ha, with output seen at 51.4m t (+14%) for the USA.

In Asia, higher-than-normal temperatures have persisted across key producing regions in northern India since Early-February. While farmers are reportedly employing a series of crop protection measures, the heat is likely to adversely affect yield potential, similar to the season before. Production is forecast to increase to 109.0m t (+1%).

Finally, with drought seen curbing area and yields in parts of North Africa, cumulative production is forecast at a smaller than average 17.7m t (+5%). Recent rains provided some relief in Morocco, where prospects are better than a year ago, albeit with projected output seen at a comparatively low 4.0m t (+48%).

In terms of trade, potentially smaller exportable surpluses in the main exporters, coupled with stronger competition from feed alternatives in some markets, could contain world wheat trade in 2023/24, with the volume tentatively placed at 194.9m t, down by 2% year to year.

At 42.0m t (43.5m), Russia is expected to remain the world’s largest exporter, with supplies supported by sizeable carryover stocks from the previous year. Tighter availabilities are set to restrict dispatches from Australia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine - exports by the latter seen at a decade low. Other major suppliers could increase their market presence, with deliveries by the EU forecast at 33.5m t (32.5m), a four-year high.

Given the huge swings in global grain output in recent seasons, both to the downside and to the upside, the second day of the IGC Grains Conference will include a workshop session entirely devoted to production prospects. The session will focus mainly on outlooks in the northern hemisphere, especially in those countries exhibiting variability in crop production in recent seasons, including in parts of North America and North Africa. Discussions will also be centred on ENSO climate drivers and their influence on agricultural output, as well as broader efforts to better understand levels of Black Sea production, especially in Ukraine. 

The IGC Conference is organising in the framework of the London Grains Week, supported by IGTC, GAFTA, AHDB as well as IGC. This conference brings more than 350 delegates from more than 60 countries to share their vision and experience in the grains trade. It is also a unique platform of networking for operators in the grains trade, financial sector and public sector.