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USDA raises projection for 2021-22 wheat demand

11 April 20222 min reading

In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the USDA has raised world wheat demand estimates for 2021/22 by 3.8 million tons to 791.1 million primarily on higher food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use for India.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on April 8. Noting Russia’s recent military action in Ukraine significantly increased the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally, the USDA lowered its global wheat export estimates for 2021/22 by 3.0 million tons to 200.1 million as lower exports by the EU, Ukraine, the United States, and Kazakhstan are not completely offset by higher exports by Russia, Brazil, and Argentina.  “EU exports are reduced 3.5 million tons to 34.0 million on a lower-than-expected pace. Russia’s exports are raised 1.0 million tons to 33.0 million as it continues to export at competitive prices,” WASDE said. Ukraine’s exports are lowered 1.0 million tons to 19.0 million as its Black Sea ports remain closed since the invasion by Russia in February.

The USDA raised world wheat demand estimates by 3.8 million tons to 791.1 million primarily on higher food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use for India. Based on greater offtake from government stocks to food distribution programs, India’s FSI is raised 4.4 million tons to a record 100.9 million.

The USDA left global wheat outlook estimates for 2021/22 unchanged at 778 million tons. And projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are lowered by 3.1 million tons to 278.4 million with India accounting for most of the reduction that is only partially offset by higher EU stocks. Global stocks are projected at a 5-year low.


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