In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report  released on September 10, the USDA increased its wheat production estimate by around 3.5mt for 2021/22 season.

Total supplies are projected rising by 7.1 million tons to 1,072.8 million, on the combination of larger beginning stocks for Canada, EU, and India and higher production for Australia, India, and China.

Australia’s production is raised 1.5 million tons to 31.5 million on continued widespread favorable conditions. This would be Australia’s third largest wheat crop on record. India’s production is increased 1.5 million tons to 109.5 million on the government’s 4th Advance Estimate and this would be India’s fifth consecutive record crop. China’s production is increased 900,000 tons to 136.9 million, mainly on a higher area estimated by the National Bureau of Statistics. Partially offsetting these increases, Canadian production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 23.0 million, based on the Statistics Canada forecast issued August 30, and Argentina is reduced 500,000 tons to 20.0 million on dry conditions.

Projected 2021/22 world consumption is raised 3.0 million tons to 789.6 million. Most of the higher consumption is for feed and residual use, led by China, increasing by 1.0 million tons to 36.0 million. Projected 2021/22 global trade is raised 1.5 million tons to 199.7 million as higher exports by Australia and India more than offset reduced exports for Canada. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are increased 4.2 million tons to 283.2 million with India, EU, and Canada accounting for most of the increase, although global stocks remain below last year.