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Ukraine's grain exports to decline by more than 20% in the new season

26 June 20242 min reading

SovEcon, a leading agricultural markets research firm specializing in the Black Sea region, has estimated Ukrainian wheat exports for the 2024/25 season at 13.6 million metric tons (MMT), 25% lower than last year's figures. Corn exports are projected at 22.0 MMT, a 23% decrease from the previous year. Ukrainian exports in the new season are expected to decline amid a significant reduction in supply.

Ukrainian wheat production for the new season is estimated at 20.4 MMT, down from 21.6 MMT last year, and corn production is forecasted at 27.6 MMT, down from 31.0 MMT. The anticipated lower crop yield is due to reduced corn planting areas and lower yields for both corn and wheat.

Carryover stocks for 2023/24 are expected to decrease to 0.9 MMT for wheat, down from 4.0 MMT a year earlier, and to 1.5 MMT for corn, down from 4.2 MMT. These declines in carryover stocks are attributed to the high export pace in the current season. SovEcon estimates Ukrainian wheat exports in 2023/24 at 18.2 MMT, and corn at 28.4 MMT.

Spain, Egypt, and China are among the largest importers of Ukrainian grain. In the past 11 months, Spain has received 5.6 MMT of wheat and 5.3 MMT of corn, Egypt has imported 1.6 MMT of wheat and 3.5 MMT of corn, and China has imported 4.6 MMT of corn.

The reduced grain export potential from Ukraine, coupled with expected smaller supplies from Russia, could support the global grain market.

Mention: @SovEcon

#Ukraine #Ukrainiangrainexports #grainmarket


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