Türkiye is entering the 2025/26 harvest season with a more constructive production outlook than last year, speakers at the National Grain Council’s pre-harvest congress in Konya said. But alongside the improved crop picture, the event also highlighted broader pressures on the country’s grain chain, from shifts in corn and durum planting to stress in flour exports, soybean dependence in feed, tighter oversight of licensed warehouses and the planned expansion of exchange-based grain trading tools.
One of the clearest production signals came from Prof. Dr. Bayram Sade, who said Türkiye’s wheat crop could reach 22.75 million to 23.25 million metric tons if April and May conditions remain broadly favorable. He said winter precipitation was a key support factor, with countrywide winter rainfall running 47% above the long-term average and 2.1 times last year’s level.
Regional expectations presented at the congress pointed to uneven but broad-based recovery. Wheat output was projected to rise by 4-6% in Marmara, 10-12% in the Aegean, 20-22% in the Mediterranean, 6-8% in Central Anatolia, 3-5% in the Black Sea region, 13-15% in Eastern Anatolia, and 23-25% in Southeastern Anatolia. Still, Sade cautioned that rainfall alone does not guarantee final output, arguing that soil structure, water retention and agronomic practice will determine how much of the weather improvement is converted into yield.
WHEAT AREA EXPANDS AS CORN RETREATS
If the weather discussion pointed to recovery, the planting discussion pointed to change. Prof. Dr. Süleyman Soylu said field assessments suggest wheat planting area has risen from around 7.2 million hectares last season to about 7.5 million hectares this year. By contrast, corn area is expected to shrink, with estimates pointing to a 10-15% decline nationally and around 30% in Konya, where water constraints are reshaping farmer decisions. Soylu also pointed to a shift away from cotton in parts of the Southeast, stronger lentil interest, and a visible contraction in durum wheat planting in Central Anatolia.
PASTA AND FLOUR FACE A MORE DEMANDING EXPORT LANDSCAPE
Those cropping shifts matter well beyond the farm gate because they feed directly into Türkiye’s downstream grain industries. In pasta, Türkiye remains a global heavyweight. M. Aykut Göymen, head of the Turkish Pasta Manufacturers’ Association, said the country exports around 1.5 million tons of pasta and accounts for roughly 26% of world pasta exports, while domestic consumption stands near 700,000 tons. But he also warned that installed capacity is moving toward 4 million tons, raising a strategic question over whether export demand can keep pace, especially in a more protectionist global environment and at a time when African countries are building serious domestic pasta capacity.
Mehmet Mesut Çakmak, Head of the Turkish Flour Industrialists’ Federation
The flour sector offered a similarly strong but more pressured picture. Mesut Çakmak, head of the Turkish Flour Industrialists’ Federation, said Türkiye has around 472 flour mills, of which 379 are active, but average capacity utilization is only about 45%. He warned that, despite Türkiye’s long-standing leadership in global flour exports, trade friction and financial bottlenecks in key markets, especially Iraq, are weighing on performance. According to Çakmak, if current conditions persist, flour exports could drift toward 2 million tons, far below the sector’s earlier peaks.
LOW WHEAT PRICES MASK DEEPER MARKET FRAGILITY
For international grain market participants, one of the most relevant discussions in Konya came from Günhan Ulusoy, who argued that grain markets can no longer be read through supply and demand alone. Ulusoy said world wheat prices around $240 per ton remain too low to comfortably cover many producers’ costs, even though the market still appears well supplied. In his view, strong recent harvests and stocks, especially Russia’s exportable surplus, are masking a much more fragile equilibrium underneath.
Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, Chairman of IAOM Eurasia and Chairman of the Board of Ulusoy Flour
Ulusoy’s broader point was that grain pricing is increasingly exposed to energy, fertilizer and freight shocks. He argued that any disruption around Hormuz, the Red Sea or other critical maritime corridors may not immediately remove physical grain from the market, but can still work through oil, natural gas, fertilizer and shipping costs before showing up in food prices. With roughly three-quarters of global grain trade moving by sea, this linkage has become too important for the grain trade to ignore.
FEED SECTOR GROWS, BUT DEPENDENCIES DEEPEN
Feed was another area where scale and vulnerability appeared together. Ülkü Karakuş, President of the Turkish Feed Manufacturers’ Association (TÜRKİYEM-BİR), said Türkiye’s feed production is now discussed at around 30 million tons, with roughly 15 million tons highlighted in compound feed. He described soybeans as a strategic raw material for the sector and stressed that feed security is now inseparable from food security. Karakuş also said the fish feed segment is approaching 1 million tons, while aquaculture exports stand at around $2.1 billion, underlining how feed is increasingly tied not only to poultry and livestock but also to higher-value protein chains.
Ülkü Karakuş, President of the Turkish Feed Manufacturers’ Association (TÜRKİYEM-BİR)
GOVERNMENT SIGNALS INPUT SECURITY AND HARVEST READINESS
On the policy side, Agriculture and Forestry Minister İbrahim Yumaklı tried to reassure the market on input security and harvest management. He said Türkiye does not expect a fertilizer supply crisis and that the government has been actively managing the flow of key agricultural inputs, including through tariff adjustments on selected fertilizer products and alternative sourcing measures. He also emphasized that procurement pricing in the new season would be shaped in a way that protects producers while taking consumer interests and broader market stability into account.
Turkish Grain Board, or TMO, sent an equally important pre-harvest message. TMO General Manager Ahmet Güldal said the agency wants to enter the season with empty storage space where needed and with financing capacity ready. He said producers should not face a situation where their grain cannot be received, and product payment would not be the issue. Güldal also defended the institution’s high-stock strategy of recent years, saying it had helped stabilize the domestic market during successive shocks ranging from drought and war to logistics disruptions.
Ahmet Güldal, TMO General Manager
Storage and trust were major themes at the congress. Güldal said licensed warehouse capacity has now exceeded 14 million tons, which makes it a critical pillar of Türkiye’s grain market architecture. But after confidence-damaging incidents in the past two years, he said penalties would be tightened against operators involved in quality manipulation, stock losses or irregular practices. He added that state-backed procurement would not be extended to crops planted outside the production-planning framework, linking market support more directly to official planning priorities.
TURKISH GRAIN EXCHANGE LOOKS BEYOND SPOT MARKETS
The institutional modernization story did not stop there. Ali Kırali, general manager of the Turkish Mercantile Exchange, or TÜRİB, said exchange-based trading reached about 10 million tons last year and could rise to 12 million tons in 2026. He also said TÜRİB wants to move beyond the current spot structure by launching a futures market architecture that includes both physically delivered and cash-settled contracts. In parallel, the exchange is working on a remote warehouse monitoring system designed to compare physical stock levels with electronic warehouse receipt records and trigger alerts in the event of mismatches.
The discussions in Konya pointed to a Turkish grain sector entering the new harvest with a stronger crop outlook than last year, but also with a more complex risk map. Wheat recovery prospects look better. Corn area is under pressure from water constraints. Durum planting appears softer in key inland zones. Flour and pasta remain globally significant but face tighter margins and harder export conditions. Feed continues to expand, but with strategic dependence on imported raw materials. And policymakers are trying to respond not only with procurement and input measures, but also with tighter storage oversight and deeper market infrastructure.