Türkiye is setting a long-term wheat vision built on stability, efficiency, and quality. Speaking to Miller Magazine, Yaşar Serpi, Chairman of the Board of the National Grain Council of Türkiye (UHK), said a 30 million tonne production target by 2040 is achievable through water-smart production planning, modern irrigation, drought-tolerant varieties, and technology-led support schemes. He added that strategic stock management and predictable policies will be the core safeguards of this transformation.

Yaşar Serpi
Chairman of the Board
National Grain Council of Türkiye (UHK)

Grains are no longer just an agricultural commodity group. In today’s world, they sit at the intersection of food security, macroeconomic stability, and national resilience, shaped by climate volatility, geopolitical tensions, and increasingly fragile supply chains. As these pressures intensify, grain markets are becoming not only more vulnerable, but also more strategically important for governments and industry alike.

For Türkiye, grains—especially wheat—carry a dual significance. They are essential for meeting domestic needs, yet they also underpin a broader ambition: to strengthen Türkiye’s role as a regional processing and export hub, supported by a robust production base and an advanced milling industry. Turning this potential into a sustainable advantage, however, requires a new policy and production mindset—one that prioritises consistency in output, climate resilience, and measurable gains in productivity and quality.

Against this backdrop, Yaşar Serpi outlines what he describes as Türkiye’s transition into a new wheat phase built around “stability–efficiency–quality.” In the interview, he details the enabling conditions for long-term growth—from water stewardship and irrigation modernisation to varietal resilience and technology-driven incentives that improve performance across the value chain.

Serpi also highlights two pillars he considers non-negotiable for the road ahead: strategic stock management and predictable, long-term policy signals. In his view, these are the “insurance mechanisms” that can protect the sector from cyclical shocks, support investment decisions, and enable producers and processors to plan with confidence.

In this wide-ranging interview, we explore Türkiye’s grains landscape from multiple angles—current dynamics in supply and demand, production expectations, and the signals coming from global markets. Drawing on both his role at the Council and his perspective as an industrialist, Serpi offers a detailed assessment spanning production, trade, price formation, sustainability, and risk management.

Mr. Yaşar Serpi, thank you for making time for us. To begin, could you briefly outline the mission of the National Grain Council of Türkiye (UHK) and the key areas of work it focuses on?

The National Grain Council was established in 2010 pursuant to the Agricultural Law. It is a legal entity that brings together all stakeholders across the sector—from producers and industrialists to universities and public institutions. Today, the Council has 185 members and operates from its headquarters in Ankara.

UHK’s core mission is to contribute to policy development across the entire value chain—from planting to processing, consumption, and trade. Producing analyses that help guide the sector in line with market conditions, climate risks, and international developments; preparing data-driven reports; and building a shared strategic perspective are among our main areas of work.

In this framework, we do more than produce desk reports. We have held sector meetings in 17 locations across Türkiye. For the past three seasons, we have also organised pre-harvest congresses with participation at ministerial level. Our Scientific Board’s reports on wheat, barley, rice, triticale, oats, and rye have become reference publications for the sector. In addition, we regularly publish crop progress and harvest-forecast reports throughout the year, and we share our views and recommendations on regulatory changes through public channels.

Where does Türkiye’s grain supply–demand balance stand today? 

In broad terms, Türkiye’s grain supply–demand balance can be described as largely in equilibrium. In an average year, the country produces around 20 million tonnes of wheat, 8 million tonnes of barley, and 8.5 million tonnes of maize, although there can be notable year-to-year variability in certain crops. For example, because last season was dry, Türkiye’s wheat and barley requirements increased. However, with Turkish Grain Board (TMO) holding strong carryover stocks from the previous season, import requirements remained limited.

Unfortunately, the 2024/25 harvest was affected by drought. In that production season, total grain output fell by 12.3% to around 34.2 million tonnes. Compared with the previous season, wheat production declined by 13.7% to 17.9 million tonnes, while barley fell by 25.9% to 6.0 million tonnes. Rye decreased by 20.9% to about 203,000 tonnes, and oats dropped by 26.3% to roughly 288,000 tonnes. Maize, however, rose by 5% to around 8.6 million tonnes.

While this production volume can cover domestic consumption in the short term, it remains insufficient when Türkiye’s full potential and strategic position are taken into account. The key challenge is not only total output, but also production stability, consistent quality, and resilience to climatic conditions. As UHK, our core approach is to focus not only on planted area, but on achieving higher—and higher-quality—yields per unit area.

You view the sector from multiple angles—as Chairman of the National Grain Council and as a leader in the flour milling industry. How would you assess 2025 for grain markets?

For the grains sector, 2025 has been a year in which multi-layered risks materialised at the same time—putting the sector’s resilience to a real test. Drought linked to climate change, rising input costs, and volatility in global markets exerted pressure on production. However, thanks to producers’ experience, the processing industry’s procurement flexibility, and effective coordination with public institutions, supply security was maintained. From UHK’s perspective, this has been a threshold year—one that has clearly exposed the limits of our current production model and underscored the need for structural transformation.

Türkiye’s agriculture, food, and beverage exports declined by 1.02% year on year in January–November 2025, to USD 24.79 billion, while imports rose by 22.83% to USD 20.52 billion. Despite this increase in imports, the sector still generated a trade surplus of USD 4.27 billion over the period. Meanwhile, the unit export value increased by 8.8% to USD 1,422 per tonne.

In 2025, Türkiye imported around 4 million tonnes of wheat (including the wheat equivalent of processed-product imports), while exporting processed products equivalent to 6.4 million tonnes of wheat. This trade generated USD 3.5 billion in export revenue, against USD 1.14 billion paid for imports.

However, one point must be underlined: the fact that production volumes can cover domestic consumption is not sufficient on its own. The real challenge is ensuring stability in production, safeguarding consistent quality, and building a production structure that is resilient to climate change.

Why should increasing wheat production be a strategic priority for Türkiye?

Increasing wheat production is vital not only as an economic objective, but also for food security, strategic autonomy, and rural development. In that sense, the question “Why should we increase wheat production?” is not merely an agricultural issue—it is also a matter of economic, social, and national strategy, with clear implications for climate resilience and sustainability.

Since the 1990s, economic conditions have been the main driver behind the contraction of wheat planting areas in Türkiye. Around 20 years ago, wheat area stood at roughly 9 million hectares, before declining to 6.8 million hectares. Today, it is around 7–7.5 million hectares. This reduction was largely offset for a period by yield gains supported by modern farming practices. As a result, despite a smaller planted area, annual wheat production increased from around 15 million tonnes to about 20 million tonnes. However, as the population grew, demand rose as well. In recent years, strengthened and more strategic policy support from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, along with the price-stabilising role of the Turkish Grain Board (TMO)—especially for wheat—has helped reinforce national production and trade, alongside a gradual recovery in planted area.

Although Türkiye is above the global average, with an average yield of around 270 kilograms per decare, we remain slightly below many developed countries. Climate and rainfall are of course decisive factors. From this perspective, we need to reduce agriculture’s dependency on weather conditions. In Türkiye, around 4 million hectares are still left fallow, with insufficient water being the primary reason. Within clearly defined principles, inter-basin water transfers should be implemented where feasible. In addition, irrigation systems in currently irrigated areas should be modernised. We also strongly support the government’s decision to lease unused land and bring it into production, as this is critically important for the sector.

Expanding crop rotation systems and adopting drought-tolerant and early-maturing wheat varieties can both protect soil fertility and reduce fallow areas by shortening the production cycle. In addition, soil-analysis-based fertilisation, digital agriculture practices, and satellite-supported crop planning can enable more sustainable production in these areas.

A TRANSFORMATION PHASE FOR WHEAT

Over the past 15 years, Türkiye’s grain production has experienced average annual volatility of 3–5%. Wheat output has fluctuated within an 18–22 million tonne range, while drought years have brought declines of 15–20%. Similarly, agricultural production has generally followed a relatively stable path, yet it has struggled to achieve targeted productivity growth. With the contribution of Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) and other irrigation projects—and with support schemes delivering visible benefits—progress has been recorded, including a 25% yield increase in irrigated areas, a 40% rise in technology adoption, and a 60% increase in the use of modern equipment.

In addition, the “New Support Model and Production Planning in Crop Production” and the “Contract Farming Model” published by the Ministry on 28 August 2024 have been valuable developments, signalling the start of a new era.

Türkiye’s average yield is around 2.6 tonnes per hectare—above the global average—yet there is roughly 40% potential to close the gap with European Union standards. Achieving this improvement would significantly lift production on existing land. In our assessment, the period 2015–2020 can be described as a Stabilisation Period, 2021–2025 as a Growth Period, and 2026–2030 as a Transformation Period, with a vision of 25–28 million tonnes on average.

Within this framework, policy priorities—first, to feed a population of 100 million, and second, to supply as much as possible of the raw material needed for exports of wheat-based products such as flour, pasta, and bulgur from domestic sources—include basin-based dynamic production planning, yield-based support, carbon-neutral production models, digital agriculture infrastructure, and R&D and breeding-focused approaches.

With these strategies implemented, it would not be unrealistic for Türkiye to achieve 30 million tonnes of wheat production by 2040, along with USD 8 billion in export revenues from processed-product exports equivalent to 15 million tonnes of wheat.

FLOUR PRICES CANNOT DIVERGE FROM THE GLOBAL TREND

Are the recent fluctuations in wheat flour prices being driven primarily by domestic factors, or by developments in global grain markets?

Price formation in flour markets is driven primarily by developments in global grain markets. The main reasons are wheat’s role as an internationally traded commodity; price discovery on exchanges such as Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Euronext Paris (MATIF); the rapid transmission of global supply–demand shocks; and the domestic industry’s tendency to reference import parity when pricing in the local market.

That said, domestic factors—especially inflation, exchange rates, labour costs, and logistics/energy expenses—remain important complementary drivers. They can amplify or dampen both the magnitude and the speed of price movements in the domestic market.

Even though Turkish Grain Board (TMO) intervention purchase and sale prices aim to stabilise the market, a structural divergence from global trends is difficult when international prices rise sharply and imported wheat costs increase in TRY terms. In such periods, interventions can provide only temporary stabilisation.

Moreover, even in a global environment of surplus supply or rising production, countries like Türkiye that both import and export can experience domestic price pressure driven by local variables such as exchange rates, taxes, and logistics costs. While international price indices and global market conditions (supply–demand balance, stock levels, trade flows) can ease pressure, increases in the exchange rate, freight, and logistics costs may still lift prices in TRY terms. In 2025, flour prices did not rise continuously; movements broadly followed—at times even lagging—raw material price increases.

FLOUR EXPORTS CONTRACTED BY 22%

In 2025, Türkiye earned USD 874 million from exporting 2.35 million tonnes of flour. This represented a 22% contraction compared with the previous year, increasing price sensitivity during domestic supply–demand cycles. Global conditions provide the “background”, but in Türkiye the direction and intensity of price movements are shaped largely by exchange-rate volatility, TMO reference prices, production costs, and the domestic supply–demand balance.

Therefore, achieving sustainable stability in the flour market requires more than tracking external indicators alone. Domestic agricultural policy, exchange-rate dynamics, producer support mechanisms, and the local supply–demand balance must also be considered.

QUALITY AND PRICE DIFFERENTIATION IN COMPETITION

For flour industrialists, 2025 was a year in which raw material sourcing, continuity of quality, and cost management came to the fore. In the domestic market, quality was decisive; in export markets, price competition was decisive. Despite these pressures, the sector managed the period thanks to flexible sourcing capabilities and strong export reflexes.

Looking ahead to 2026, the biggest risk for the sector is persistent global uncertainty and price volatility. The biggest opportunity is strengthening Türkiye’s potential to become a regional flour hub, supported by logistics advantages and production capacity. Despite weaker exports in 2025, Turkish flour industrialists largely protected their core markets—an important foundation for a new export growth story in 2026 and beyond.

While geopolitical risks create short-term uncertainty, they also position Türkiye to stand out as a reliable supplier. The industry is increasingly competing not only on price, but also on continuity and trust. In global markets, price formation can no longer be explained solely by supply–demand fundamentals; financial flows, logistics costs, and geopolitical risk have become permanent variables. In this environment, Türkiye needs to reinforce balance through strategic stock management and predictable policies.

EXTREME WEATHER IS RAISING COSTS AND QUALITY RISKS

How are climate change and geopolitical tensions reshaping global grain markets—both in terms of supply risks and price volatility?

Rising temperatures are already weighing on yields—especially for cool-season crops such as wheat and maize. Research and field evidence consistently point to a clear relationship: a 1°C increase in temperature can reduce wheat yields by roughly 4–6% and maize yields by around 7–10%. Droughts, floods, and extreme heatwaves make production planning far more difficult. Heat stress episodes in Europe and the United States can curb wheat yields, while drought in Australia and Argentina can tighten global supply and quickly reprice markets.

At the farm level, higher irrigation requirements push costs up. Fertiliser strategies, pest pressure, and disease cycles are shifting. Extreme weather also affects infrastructure: ports, storage areas, and transport corridors can be damaged by disasters. Even when volumes hold up, quality becomes more fragile—sudden rainfall during harvest, for example, can lead to measurable quality losses.

THE WHEAT BELT IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD

Climate change is also influencing geography. The global wheat belt is gradually shifting northward, increasing the relative importance of Canada, Russia, and Northern Europe in the long run. That said, geography alone does not determine risk—because geopolitics increasingly dominates both trade flows and price volatility.

Geopolitical shocks are transmitted rapidly through grain markets. The Russia–Ukraine war has had an outsized impact because the region is central to global wheat exports; disruptions and uncertainty can reprice markets sharply. Security problems in the Red Sea and the Black Sea raise freight costs and insurance premiums, while policy responses can further amplify volatility. Countries sometimes impose export restrictions to manage domestic inflation—such as India’s rice export ban, Russia’s grain taxation practices, and Argentina’s export quotas on maize and wheat.

Energy is another transmission channel. Geopolitical tensions can lift oil and natural gas prices, raising costs for fertilisers—especially nitrogen—along with machinery, processing, and logistics. Major power competition, notably between the United States and China, also spills into agricultural trade. China’s stockpiling decisions can materially influence global price formation; at times, markets move less on “pure supply and demand” and more on expectations and stock management.

When climate-driven production losses combine with war-related export constraints, imbalances become sharper: prices react faster, food inflation accelerates, and supply routes lengthen—pushing freight costs higher. As a result, volatility is rising. Whereas longer cycles of five to ten years once dominated market behaviour, sharp short-term price spikes have become more frequent and more pronounced.

In this environment, global grain stocks are strategically critical. Countries that can build and manage stocks gain an advantage; stock management is increasingly treated as a policy tool. Trade routes and production centres are evolving: the Black Sea region remains essential but risk-prone, while North America and Australia are regaining prominence. Import dependence is also deepening across Africa and the Middle East, increasing exposure to both climate shocks and geopolitical disruptions.

With major producers still shaping global wheat prices via harvest outcomes and export policies, what is the bigger risk going forward: supply security or price volatility? How should Türkiye position itself strategically? 

In today’s global landscape, these two risk areas are closely intertwined. However, looking ahead, the larger—and harder to manage—risk is likely to be supply security. Why?

•  Export restrictions, quotas, and tax measures—often justified as “protecting the domestic market”—are no longer exceptional. In certain periods, they have effectively become standard policy instruments.
•  Climate-driven production volatility—drought, excessive rainfall, and heat stress—adds uncertainty to harvest outcomes and undermines reliability.
•  Disruptions across the Black Sea basin and key logistics corridors—from insurance and freight constraints to route disruptions and port limitations—can restrict access to physical supply even when global balances appear comfortable.

Under these conditions, price stability certainly matters—but price volatility is often a consequence of uncertainty over supply and access. Put differently, when supply security weakens, price stability deteriorates as well.

Given these risks, what strategic position should Türkiye take to strengthen supply security and manage volatility in wheat and grain markets?

1) A production transformation that strengthens stability (securing domestic supply)

•  Water-based production planning, wider adoption of drought-tolerant varieties, and productivity-led technology, including precision agriculture

•  Quality standardisation (protein, gluten, hectolitre weight, etc.) and better management of inter-regional quality differences
•  A predictable income outlook for producers through clear timing and visibility of support mechanisms and premiums.

2) Strategic stock management and an effective buffer system (a shield against shocks)

•  Stock policy should be managed not only by volume, but also by quality segmentation (bread wheat vs. durum; different quality classes)
•  A rules-based framework that calms markets during shock periods without distorting market functioning in normal conditions

3) Diversified sourcing and foreign-trade design (avoiding dependence on a single origin)

•  Greater diversity in supplier countries, alternative route/port planning, and flexibility in trade contracts
•  An import–export balance that preserves the competitiveness of value-added industries (flour, pasta, bulgur) without undermining producer incentives.

4) Positioning Türkiye as a regional supply and processing hub (strategic leverage)

•  Türkiye’s core strengths include processing capacity, logistics advantages, market access, and deep industry know-how
•  The goal is not only to be an “exporter”, but to reinforce Türkiye’s identity as a stable supplier and a reliable partner, particularly during crisis periods
•  The key requirement is predictability in the domestic market and confidence in the rules of the game.

Despite very high bread consumption, why has Türkiye struggled to build the same product diversity, branding, and value creation seen in markets like Germany and France?

There is diversity, but our “classification and narrative” are weak. In reality, Türkiye has very strong regional diversity in breads and bakery products. However, we struggle to present this as a coherent “product family” to national and international markets—supported by standardised quality criteria, a stronger geographical indication/registration infrastructure, and a consistent language of story, identity, and brand.

Quality standardisation and a shared “flour quality language” are not sufficiently established. In Germany and France, consumers know the “character” of bread. In Türkiye, a price-focused perception often dominates. A stronger system is needed for end-use-based standardisation in flour quality, process standards in baking, and training.

R&D, innovation, and product development remain limited. The functional and health-focused product segment should be developed further. Shelf life, packaging, cold chain, and ready-to-bake/semi-finished product innovation are critical for converting consumption into higher value-added output. Türkiye is developing in these areas, but still lags behind its potential in scale and brand strength.

A “bread culture brand” integrated with gastronomy and tourism has not been sufficiently established. France’s baguette is a cultural brand; gastronomy, training, and standards move together. Türkiye has equivalents—such as somun, bazlama, lavaş, pide, yufka, and tandır—but coordination is still weak when it comes to building a “national umbrella brand”.

Waste and efficiency issues also reduce value-added potential. A significant share of high consumption is associated with waste. Waste increases costs, lowers quality perception, and weakens sustainability claims. Reducing waste, however, creates social, economic, and environmental added value.

DEFINING TÜRKIYE’S BREAD ROUTES

Is the sector recognising this richness?

A significant part of the sector is—especially large-scale companies, where innovation, packaged products, and export capability are growing. But overall, due to a fragmented baking ecosystem, gaps in standardisation and training, and the weakness of brand and product architecture, this “richness” has not yet fully translated into economic value.

What would a concrete roadmap look like for turning Türkiye’s bread diversity into a stronger national brand and higher value-added products?

Varieties should be documented and clear quality criteria defined. Regional products should be connected to a national narrative through geographical indications and a national brand umbrella. R&D incentives for specialised, functional products should also be put on the agenda. Through waste-reduction programmes, the focus should shift toward packaged and portioned solutions. And by integrating gastronomy and tourism, initiatives can be developed around themes such as “Türkiye’s bread routes”.

Finally, what key message would you like to share with producers, industrialists, and policymakers?

The grain sector is the foundation not only of agriculture, but also of food security and social stability. As UHK, our core message is clear: a knowledge-based, planned production model—centred on water and built with the participation of all stakeholders—is a necessity.