Rising trade tensions are casting a shadow over global agricultural markets, potentially jeopardizing food security, according to the latest Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor report. The report highlights the risks posed by recent tariffs and retaliatory measures affecting key commodities like wheat, maize, soybeans, biofuels, and fertilizers, urging countries to prioritize dialogue and transparency to mitigate the fallout.
The AMIS report notes that while agricultural commodity markets remain relatively well-supplied as of late March 2025, the situation could deteriorate rapidly. “Recent policy developments have not to date translated into sharp price swings on global markets. However, this could change if wide-ranging restrictions on AMIS commodities and other food and agricultural goods affect trade,” the report cautions. Escalating trade barriers, such as higher import tariffs, could drive up food prices, making it harder for vulnerable populations to access affordable nutrition.
The stakes are high. Citing data from five United Nations agencies, the report reveals that approximately 733 million people—one in eleven globally—faced hunger in 2023. While the resumption of trade from the Black Sea region and alternative sourcing eased the food price spike of early 2022, new trade disruptions could reverse these gains. “Raising the taxes that governments impose on imports of foodstuffs would push prices up to higher levels—leaving many consumers less able to afford the food they need,” the report warns.
Historically, global markets have been a lifeline for meeting rising food demand. The report underscores that trade in food and agricultural products has surged five-fold between 2000 and 2022, driven by population growth and rising incomes. This growth was supported by a gradual decline in tariffs—from an average of 13 percent in 2005 to 5.8 percent in 2022—alongside stable trade rules under the World Trade Organization (WTO). However, the current wave of trade tensions threatens this stability, with countries announcing or considering further measures as the report was finalized.
AMIS emphasizes the importance of predictable trade rules, such as non-discrimination between countries and adherence to WTO tariff ceilings, in sustaining integrated value chains. These chains ensure farmers have access to essential inputs like feed, fuel, and fertilizers, while consumers benefit from a steady supply of safe and nutritious food. Farmers’ organizations and commodity groups have already voiced support for swift resolutions to the tensions, with dialogue between leaders showing early promise in pausing new trade barriers.
On the diplomatic front, the report highlights upcoming WTO consultations between the United States and Canada, the United States and China, and Canada and China, signaling efforts to address disputes through established mechanisms. "If disagreements over trade do occur, countries can and should make use of the dispute settlement procedures that exist to defuse tensions and ease the path towards resolution," it advises.