Record Black Sea crops, slower-than-expected exports, Egypt’s shifting procurement model and Ukraine’s pivot away from Spain are setting a new pattern for wheat flows in 2025/26. Farmer retention, EU restrictions and wartime logistics now play a decisive role in determining which origins actually supply the world’s largest buyers. 

At Global Grain Geneva’s session “From Wheat to Feed: Black Sea Tender 2025/26”, Christina Serebriakova (ASAP Agri) moderated a candid discussion with Mykhailo Lytvyn (MVE Prospera AG), Victor Petzold (Ameropa) and Ahmed Elsebaie (Egyptian Swiss Group) on how this new map is emerging.

BIGGER CROP, MUTED EXPORT RESPONSE

For 2025/26, Black Sea wheat output is projected to rise by around 10 Mmt, driven by a larger Russian crop, steady Ukraine and a good Romanian harvest. Yet exports are seen increasing by only about 1 Mmt, while France is set for a much stronger rebound in shipments. Romania illustrates the paradox: despite one of its best crops in years and ample export capacity, loadings have slowed as many farmers simply refuse to sell at current prices, keeping part of the Black Sea surplus “locked” on farm.

EGYPT’S NEW PROCUREMENT LANDSCAPE

Egypt, still the anchor market for Black Sea wheat, has imported roughly 15–20% less wheat year-to-date versus last season. Average monthly arrivals have dipped from about 1.22 Mmt to around 1.1 Mmt, although October stood out with close to 2 Mmt of imports – far above recent norms. Higher beginning stocks, a domestic crop up from roughly 9 to 10 Mmt and softer flour exports all help explain the slower overall import pace.

At the same time, Egypt’s procurement model is changing. The Mostakbal Misr (Future of Egypt) programme and a greater role for the private sector are reducing GASC’s relative weight. The ranking of private importers is shifting as some companies adapt more effectively than others to regulatory, financial and logistics constraints. For exporters, Egypt is no longer just a story of state tenders; private buyers and their access to international trade finance are now central.

Within Egypt, origin shares are being reshuffled. Russia’s share of imports between July and October has dropped from about 70% last season to just over 50%, with Ukraine capturing much of the difference. Ukrainian wheat has offered a quality profile (around 11.0–11.5% protein) well suited to Egypt’s flour-and-feed blends, and has fitted more smoothly into the Future of Egypt framework and Western-backed trade finance lines used by private buyers.

At the same time, Ukraine has lost space in the EU, especially in Spain, due to the end of fully liberalised, duty-free access and a record French crop crowding out imports in the Mediterranean feed market. As a result, around 2.0–2.5 Mmt of Ukrainian wheat that would previously have gone to Spain and other EU destinations is now being redirected toward North Africa and the Middle East – notably Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Israel – where fundamental demand for Black Sea wheat remains strong despite intense competition from Russia.