The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) elevated global 2020/21 wheat trade for the July/June trade year to 195.6 million driven by larger exports for Australia, Canada, India, and Kazakhstan.
Australia’s is projected up 1.5 million tons to 19.5 million as exportable supplies are estimated larger with the upward revision to the crop and competitively priced exports to Asian markets. Canada’s forecast is up 500,000 to 27 million with a strong pace of exports, especially to China. India’s exports are projected up 300,000 to 2.5 million on a strong pace of shipments and continued competitiveness to neighboring countries in the South Asian region. Similarly, Kazakhstan’s export forecast is up 200,000 tons to 7.7 million with strong shipments to its neighboring countries.
Pakistan’s imports are raised 600,000 tons to 3.6 million on the strong pace of imports to date as well as additional government tenders to restore stocks. Pakistan’s imports are now projected at a record high, narrowly surpassing the previous high of 3.562 million tons, set in 1997/98. Pakistan is mostly self-sufficient in wheat and was a net exporter for most of the past decade. In recent years Pakistan’s consumption has grown steadily while production stagnated, leading to tightening stocks and the need to import large volumes.
China’s imports are boosted 500,000 tons to 10.5 million on the continued strong pace of imports in recent months. Given the high corn prices and the increased use of wheat in feed rations, future wheat imports are expected to continue to be robust. This represents the largest imports for China in 25 years.
Nigeria’s imports are boosted 400,000 tons to 5.5 million with a strong pace of trade to date. Shipments so far have been mainly from the European Union and Russia, but large outstanding sales of U.S. wheat suggest that future shipments from the United States could improve. Imports from Jordan are also projected 300,000 tons higher to 1.5 million based on strong pace of trade, especially from Russia. Similarly, Kazakhstan’s imports are projected up 200,000 tons to 500,000 based on large imports of high-quality wheat from Russia. Since Kazakhstan is part of the same customs union as Russia the recently imposed export taxes and quotas do not apply to Russia’s exports to this market. Turkey’s imports are also boosted 200,000 tons to 8.2 million on strong pace of trade, mainly from Russia. Conversely, imports for Mexico and Vietnam are cut 200,000 tons each to 4.8 million and 3.4 million on the lower than expected pace of trade.