Russia is set to have record supplies in 2022/23,
enabling the country to soar to record exports. Production is up more than 20
percent from last year on much improved weather conditions and the country has
large carryin stocks.
The restrictive trade policies in place during the second half of the 2021/22 marketing year prompted larger on- and off-farm stockholding, leading to large carryin stocks from which to ship. Russia implemented an export quota of 8 million tons between February 15 and June 30, the end of the marketing year.
So far in 2022/23, exports have begun to increase. However, continued challenges in booking sales and export logistics, and the continued government-imposed export tax have resulted in a more modest start of the export campaign.
Over the course of the year, Russia is expected to increase monthly shipments to offset lower exportable supplies from its two main competitors. The EU has a smaller wheat crop and will also use more wheat domestically for feed due to lower corn production. Ukraine also has a smaller crop and faces continued logistical constraints on its exports. While the grain corridor is currently open, there are upcoming discussions regarding its renewal. As the largest exporter and with a bumper crop, Russia seeks to expand its markets overseas, by boosting exports and continuing to open new markets such as Algeria.