Indonesia imported a record quantity of grains in 2023/24, up over 30 percent from the prior marketing year. In addition to the ongoing trends of a rising population and shifting diets, domestic production shortfalls due to delayed rainfall spurred a flurry of public and private sector purchases. However, with improved production prospects in 2024/25, imports are expected to decline.

Indonesia is a consistent major importer of wheat, with no production but a growing preference for affordable wheat-based staples such as instant noodles. In 2023/24, imports of wheat were up 38 percent from the prior year to offset tight beginning stocks. Imports of wheat for 2024/25 are expected to subside. Thus far in the marketing year, fewer imports from primary supplier Australia are partially offset by stronger imports from Canada and the United States. While imports from Ukraine are large so far this marketing year, the pace is expected to slow, given its tight stocks.  

According to the most updated import realization numbers, total wheat imports for 2023/24 are estimated to further increase to a record high of 12.982 MMT from 9.446 MMT imported in 2022/23. The significant increase of wheat imports in 2023/24 reflects higher wheat consumption for both food and feed use, which are increased to 9.6 MMT and 2.3 MMT respectively. However, 2024/25 wheat imports are forecast down to 12.0 MMT due to the receding of the abnormal spike in wheat demand that had been caused by the 2024 general elections, a weakened exchange rate, lower feed ingredients demand from feed mills, and the new government’s high prioritization of food self-sufficiency. Indonesia does not produce wheat domestically and meets demand for wheat flour-based food and wheat as a feed ingredient for poultry, aquaculture, and livestock fully from imports.

RICE IMPORTS SURGE AS INDONESIA FACES DOMESTIC PRODUCTION GAPS

Indonesians consume more than three times as much rice as wheat, which the country typically supplies primarily with domestic production. However, with delayed seasonal rainfall, production fell in 2022/23 and 2023/24. Amid the urgency to secure staple food supplies during an election year, the state food logistics agency was authorized to import rice through numerous tenders in 2023 and 2024 to supplement supplies. While imports represented only about 10 percent of consumption in 2023/24, Indonesia rose from a minor importer to become the second-largest importer, accounting for 7 percent of global trade.  

The weather also delayed Indonesia’s corn harvest in 2023/24. With rising demand for feed and wet milling, Indonesia authorized additional corn imports, primarily sourced from Brazil and Argentina. Looking ahead to 2024/25, with improved production prospects, grain imports are expected to decline from this year’s peak.