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IGC lowers its global grain production forecast

26 August 20222 min reading

“Pulled lower mainly by a comparatively steep drop in maize production, seen 41 million tons lower year-on-year, total grains output is forecast to contract by 2% in 2022/23. However, at 2,248 million tons, the global outturn will still be above-average and the second largest on record,” the IGC said in its latest Grain Market Report. 

In its August Grain Market Report, the International Grains Council (IGC) has revised global total grain production and consumption estimates for the 2022-23 marketing year.  With downward adjustments for maize and sorghum more than offsetting an increase for wheat, the 2022/23 total grains production forecast is lowered by 4 million tons month-on-month (m/m), to 2.248 billion tons.

The IGC also revised down its global grain consumption forecast by 3 million tons to 2.274 billion tons. Taking account of a smaller carry-in, the closing stocks estimate is cut by 6 million tons month-on-month to 577 million tons.

GLOBAL WHEAT PRODUCTION

IGC's global wheat production forecast for the 2022-23 season is 778 million tons. However, global wheat demand is expected to be above production. According to the report, world wheat consumption will be at 783 million tons. And IGC's global wheat trade forecast is 193 million tons.

Forecasting that world corn production will be 1.179 billion tons this season, the Council projected global corn consumption at 1.197 billion tons and corn trade to be 173 million tons.

Reflecting firmer than anticipated demand from Asian and African buyers, the forecast for rice trade in 2022 is lifted m/m, to 51.5 million tons. Chiefly linked to a reduced outlook for India’s main crop, the projection for 2022/23 global rice output is trimmed to 514 million tons.

The Council’s figures for soyabean supply and demand in 2021/22 are little-changed m/m, with trade seen dropping by 3% year-on-year. Uprated outlooks for leading producers lift the 2022/23 output projection by 3 million tons m/m, to a new peak (+11% y/y), with expectations for consumption also raised from before, while inventories are trimmed to 52 million tons. Traded volumes are predicted 1 million ton higher m/m, at around 166 million tons.


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