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IGC forecasts expansion in world grain production in 2023/24

16 June 20234 min reading

According to the IGC, world grain production is expected to reach 2,294 million tons (mt) in 2023/24, marking a significant increase of 40 million tons compared to the previous year. However, end-season stocks are projected to tighten further, reaching a nine-year low. Trade in grains for the 2023/24 season is projected to slightly decrease to 408 million tons, primarily due to the anticipated decrease in wheat flows.

The International Grains Council (IGC) concluded its 58th IGC Council Session on June 14, 2023. During the meeting, the council members, chaired by Dr. Florence Kaibi, Agriculture Attaché at the Kenya Embassy to Belgium, Luxembourg, and Mission to the EU in Brussels, discussed various aspects of global grain production and trade. The session highlighted predictions for the 2023/24 season, which include an expansion in grain production, a rise in soybean output, and the potential challenges and opportunities in the global food supply chains.

According to the IGC, world grain production is expected to reach 2,294 million tons (mt) in 2023/24, marking a significant increase of 40 million tons compared to the previous year. This growth can be attributed to larger maize and sorghum harvests, which are expected to offset reduced wheat and barley production. However, due to increased uptake across the feed, food, and industrial sectors, consumption is expected to advance by approximately 2% year-on-year. As a result, end-season stocks are projected to tighten further, reaching a nine-year low. Trade in grains for the 2023/24 season is projected to slightly decrease to 408 million tons, primarily due to the anticipated decrease in wheat flows.

Additionally, the IGC forecasts a 9% year-on-year increase in global soybean output, reaching a peak of 403 million tons in 2023/24. This surge in soybean production is driven by strong demand for soy products, leading to inventory accumulation in key exporting countries.

The IGC also predicts a rise in world rice production, reaching a record 521 million tons in 2023/24, with modest increases in consumption and stocks. The growth in rice production is expected to be supported by acreage gains and improved yields in Asia. Furthermore, world pulses import demand is projected to increase by 5% year-on-year, totaling 18.2 million tons in 2023. This surge in demand is primarily driven by Asian buyers, with larger shipments of dry peas, lentils, and chickpeas.

During the council session, members also discussed the latest trade-related policy developments, with a particular focus on the Black Sea region. They were updated on the potential implications of China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' recently published three-year action plan, which aims to reduce the proportion of soybean meal used in feed rations to under 13% by 2025.

IGC’S PROJECTS FOR THE FORTHCOMING YEAR

The IGC also outlined its agenda for 2023/24, which includes updating and developing models of global supply and demand for ethanol and biodiesel. They also plan to expand their collection and monitoring of real-time shipping data to include other grains, soybeans, and rice. Additionally, the council will focus on analyzing trade in grains, rice, and oilseeds to identify vulnerabilities and bottlenecks in global food supply chains and enhance dialogue between producers and importers.

ANITA KATIAL APPOINTED IGC CHAIR FOR 2023/24

The council appointed Ms. Anita Katial, the incoming Agricultural Counsellor for the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland, as the Chairperson for 2023/24. Mr. Hamed Oussama Salhi, First Secretary (Agriculture) at the Embassy of Algeria in London, was appointed as the Vice-Chairperson for the same period.

IGC CONFERENCE FACILITATES HIGH-LEVEL DIALOGUE ON GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY CHALLENGES

Lastly, during the 32nd IGC Grains Conference held in London on June 12-13, the IGC and the government of Japan co-hosted a high-level dialogue between importing and producing countries. The discussion aimed to address the challenges of achieving food security for importers in volatile world markets. Lessons learned from recent events were discussed, and policymakers explored policy measures and actions that can enhance predictability and mitigate food market volatility, ultimately avoiding potential disruptions to food supply chains. The IGC's 58th Council Session and the accompanying conference provided valuable insights into global grain production, trade, and the challenges faced by importers in ensuring food security.


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