In South Africa and Botswana, grain production is dominated by corn and wheat. South Africa, which is the tenth biggest corn producer in the world, produced 10-13 million tons of corn in recent years, while the amount in Botswana, which have scarce agricultural lands and unfavorable climate conditions, is about 200,000 tons. However, Botswana has managed to supply itself with this production. In both countries, milling industry is primarily focused on corn. In flour trade of South Africa, the main focus is flour exports, while Botswana responds to its consumption demands through imports of wheat flour.

ROLE OF SOUTH AFRICA IN GLOBAL GRAIN PRODUCTION In South Africa, grain production is dominated by corn and wheat. According to the data of the US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS), South Africa produced 14,9 million tons of corn in 2013/14 season, which went down to 10,6 million tons in 2014/15 season. The production volume continued to decline in 2015/16 season, falling down to 7,9 million tons of corn. However, the forecasts of USDA indicate an increase in production in 2016/17 season, reaching to 13 million tons.

Another important product of South Africa is wheat. South Africa, which produced 1,8 million tons of wheat in 2013/14 season, decreased its production to 1.7 million tons in 2014/15 season. Wheat production continued to decline in 2015/16 season, going down to 1,4 million tons. USDA forecasts an increase in production, and estimates 1,7 million tons of wheat will be produced in 2016/17 season. The barley production in South Africa is relatively low as compared to corn and wheat. South Africa produced 300,000 tons of barley in 2014/15 and 2015/16 seasons, and it is estimated to produce 292,000 tons in 2016/17 season.

The leading product in grain consumption in South Africa is corn. According to USDA data, the country consumed 11,5 million tons of corn in 2013/14 season, and 11,6 million tons of corn in 2014/15 season. Consumption slightly went down in 2015/16 season, down to 11,2 million tons. In 2016/17 season, corn consumption is estimated to reach 11,3 million tons. In terms of wheat consumption, the figures fluctuated between 3,1 million tons and 3,4 million tons from 2013/14 to 2015/16 season. The estimated consumption for 2016/17 season is 3,4 million tons. Rice consumption in South Africa was about 900,000 tons between 2013/14 and 2015/16 seasons. The estimated consumption for 2016/17 season is 1 million tons.

ROLE OF BOTSWANA IN GLOBAL GRAIN PRODUCTION Botswana’s grain production is close to zero. This is largely due to vast deserts covering its lands and unfavorable climate conditions for agriculture, which limits the production of grains. The grain consumption is led by corn and sorghum. The production volumes of these products was 35,000 tons between 2013/14 and 2015/16 season and the estimated production for 2016/17 season is 2,000 tons.

The leading product in grain consumption in Botswana is corn. Corn consumption was 199,000 tons in 2013/14 season, and 235,000 tons in 2014/15 season. The consumption decreased in 2015/16 season to 223,000 tons. In 2016/17 season, corn consumption is estimated to decline 177,000 tons.

SOUTH AFRICA AND BOTSWANA IN GLOBAL GRAIN TRADE South Africa which can supply itself with its corn production resorts to imports for wheat and rice. According to USDA data, the country imported 1,6 million tons of wheat in 2013/14 season, which went up to 1,8 million tons in 2014/15 season, and to 2,4 million tons in 2015/16 season. In 2016/17 season, it is estimated to import 1,7 million tons of wheat, in parallel to the rise in production. Rice imports is close to 1 million tons. 945,000 tons of rice were imported in 2013/14 season, which went up to 980,000 tons in 2014/15 season, and 950,000 tons in 2015/16 season. In 2016/17 season, rice imports are estimated to reach 1 million tons. In corn imports from 2013/14 to 2016/17, the highest amount was reached in 2014/15 season with 1,9 million tons.

In Botswana, grain import focuses on corn and sorghum. Botswana imported 195,000 tons of corn in 2013/14 season, which reached 200,000 tons in 2014/15 season. The country imported 219,000 tons of corn in 2015/16 season, and is estimated to decrease its imports to 175,000 tons in 2016/17 season. For sorghum, imports were about 25-30,000 tons between 2013/14 and 2016/17 seasons.

FLOUR INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA AND BOTSWANA According to information published in PR Newswire, the corn and wheat milling industry in South Africa responds to approximately 30 percent of national agricultural production. According to estimations, 290 flour millers are operating across the country. Milling industry is dominated by four leading milling companies, which perform 60 percent of total corn milling in the country. These companies also hold 97 percent of the wheat milling industry. Flour mills in South Africa predominantly produce white and brown bread flour, cake flour and biscuit flour.

South Africa Ministry of Trade and Industry has launched the Industrial Policies Action Plan (IPAP9 for small-scale millers to enhance food safety, and thus supported the operations of approximately 290 mills in this industry. However, it is estimated that the undesirable climate conditions will lead to problems in grain production across various regions, which will have a negative impact on milling industry.

FLOUR TRADE IN SOUTH AFRICA AND BOTSWANA According to the data of United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), South Africa exported 60,000 to 151,000 tons of wheat flour between 2010 and 2013. Exporting 107,000 tons of wheat flour in 2012, South Africa increased this figure to 151,000 tons in 2013. Wheat flour imports of South Africa varied from 5,000 to 30,000 tons between 2010 and 2013. Importing 13,000 tons of wheat flour in 2012, South Africa increased this figure to 30,000 tons in 2013.

According to FAO data, Botswana exported 2,700 tons of wheat flour in 2010. Gradually decreasing this volume, Botswana exported 728 tons of wheat flour in 2011, 129 tons in 2012, and 12 tons in 2013. The figures are higher in wheat flour import. The wheat flour import of the country was 15,000 tons in 2010, and went up to 20,000 tons in 2011. Wheat flour import decreased in 2012 and 2013, and recorded at 6,000 and 5,000 tons, respectively.