Global grain stocks to lower sharply in 2022/23

22 April 20223 min reading

International Grains Council (IGC) has shared its first 2022/23 supply and demand projections for all commodities. Noting the projections are especially tentative given the conflict in the Black Sea region, IGC cut total global grain production by 12 million tons, trade by 9 million tons and carryover stocks by 26 million tons from its 2021/22 forecast.

“Despite larger carry-in stocks, world grains supply (production plus opening stocks) is forecast to contract slightly on a comparatively steeper drop in output, placed almost 1% lower year-on-year (y/y), at 2.275 mt. While consumption growth is forecast to be slower than average, end-season inventories are seen sharply down,” IGC said in the last Grain Market Report published on 21 April.

2022/23 wheat production projected fractionally lower year-on-year, with anticipated declines in Australia, Ukraine, Morocco, China and North Africa outweighing gains elsewhere. “Difficult weather and reduced fertilizer use may contribute to below-trend yields,” the report said.

Global wheat production in the 2022/23 season is projected at 780 million tons, down 1 mt from 2021/22. While consumption growth is forecast to be slower than average, end-season inventories are seen sharply down. IGC increased its global wheat consumption forecast by 7 million tons to 785 million tons. While the world wheat trade estimation did not change (193 mt), global wheat ending stocks were predicted at 277 mt, down 5 million tons from 2021-22.

On the basis of uprated figures for Asian producers, world rice output in 2021/22 is lifted by 1 mt, to a record of 515 mt (+1%), with outlooks for consumption, stocks and trade also pegged fractionally higher month-on-month. World rice production in 2022/23 is tentatively seen establishing a new high (520 million tons), including gains in key exporters. “Further growth in uptake and inventories is predicted, but global import demand may edge lower in 2023 (Jan/Dec) on softer Asian buying interest,” IGC noted.

For corn, 2022/23 total production was decreased by 13 million tons to 1.197 mt, consumption was raised by 17mt to 1.218 mt, and ending stocks were cut by 21 mt to 265 mt. And world trade in corn is tentatively projected to decline for the second successive year in 2022/23, partly linked to a highly volatile and uncertain outlook for the Black Sea region.

Tentatively assuming bigger or record crops in the three majors, 2022/23 global soybean production is projected at a peak of 383 mt, up 10% year-on-year, with gains in consumption and stocks anticipated. "Assuming ample and attractively priced availabilities, trade could expand by 7% y/y," the report said.

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