Flood-hit Pakistan’s rice exports projected to decline by 17 percent

10 November 20222 min reading

“The Pakistan rice crop was affected this year by devastating floods, with production forecast to fall 27 percent from 2021/22 to the lowest level since 2012/13.  With tighter supplies, 2022/23 exports are forecast to return to more normal levels at 4 million tons,” the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its latest grain market report released on 9th November. 

While Pakistan rice exports surged during the 2021/22 marketing year (Nov/Oct), exports were cut in November and are now forecast to decline 17 percent in 2022/23. Rice is produced primarily in Punjab and Sindh provinces and the crop was in the growing season when the floods hit the Sindh province.

Rice is much less of a staple in the Pakistani diet compared to wheat. With tighter rice supplies and higher prices, consumption is expected to decline slightly but still result in fewer exportable rice supplies.

“Throughout 2021/22, exports expanded considerably, up 26 percent to 4.4 million tons during the first 11 months of the marketing year,” the report said. “Exports were up to key buyers including Afghanistan and Kenya, but have also expanded considerably to smaller markets like Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates. The most notable growth in Pakistan exports in 2021/22 has been to China, where broken rice exports have more than doubled on strong demand for use in feed.”

With tighter supplies, 2022/23 exports are forecast to return to more normal levels at 4 million tons. “As the fourth largest exporter, reduced exports from Pakistan may benefit India, its top competitor. Both countries export basmati rice, regular milled long grain rice, parboiled rice, and broken rice. However, with India banning broken rice exports, Pakistan may still have opportunities to ship to China,” USDA noted.


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