Expectation for increase in grain production continues
International Grain Council (IGC) published the latest report on 26 October. According to the report, the expectation for an increase in total grain production in the world in 2017/18 season continues. Foreseeing word grain production as 2.069 million tons in the report published in September, IGC increased this amount to 2.075 million tons in the new report. However, despite this increase provision, world grain production is still at a very low level compared to the previous season in which it was estimated that it would reach to 2.133 million tons. The expectation of consumption continues to increase compared to both 2016/17 season, and estimations in September. According to the last report, world grain consumption which reached 2.091 million tons in 2016/17 season will increase to 2.104 million tons in 2017/18 season. Difference between production and consumption will lead to a decrease of year-end stocks from 523 million tons to 493 million tons.
In the same report, it is estimated that world wheat production reaching 754 million tons in 2016/17 season will decrease to 748 million tons with a reduction of 6 million tons in 2017/18 season. This reduction amount was announced as 12 million tons in August. In this season, it is estimated that 174 out of total 748 million tons of production will be for international trade. It is expected that the consumption which was 736 million tons in 2016/17 season will increase to 741 million tons in 2017/18 season.
Maize has the highest production amount among all the grain types. According to the October report of IGC; world maize production which was 1.079 million tons in 2016/17 season will decrease to 1.034 million tons with a decline of 45 million tons in 2017/18 season. It is estimated that maize consumption which was 1.054 million tons in 2016/17 season will reach to 1.067 million tons with an increase of 13 million tons contrary to reduction expectation in production. It is provided that amount of maize for commercial use will increase by 149 million tons.
Expectations for the reduction in rice is much lower when compared to wheat and maize. According to October report of IGC; world rice production which was 486 million tons in 2016/17 season will decrease to 482 million tons in 2017/18 season, which means a 4-million-ton decrease. It is expected that 43 million tons of this production will be for world trade. It is also expected that the consumption which was 483 million tons in 2016/17 season will reach to 485 million tons in 2017/2018 season.