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COCERAL unveils 2024 crop forecast

02 January 20242 min reading

In its first forecast for 2024, COCERAL projects a total grain crop of 281.7 million tons for the EU-27+UK region, marking a modest decline from the 2022 harvest. Wheat is expected to contribute 139.4 million tons to the 2024 harvest.

European Grain Traders Association COCERAL has released its first forecast for the 2024 crop, presenting a comprehensive overview of the anticipated grain production landscape in the EU-27+UK region. According to COCERAL's projections, the total grain crop for the EU-27+UK in 2024 is forecasted at 281.7 million tons, revealing a modest decline from the 287.1 million tons harvested in 2022.

Source: COCERAL

Wheat is expected to contribute 139.4 million tons to the 2024 harvest, aligning closely with the 139.3 million tons reaped in 2023. “Record rainfall in recent weeks had a major impact on winter cereal sowing (wheat/winter barley) in France but also in Northern Europe due to recurrent rainfall (Germany, UK, Baltics, Poland), while Spain will substantially increase vs 2023, Italy, and Germany crops will instead be in line with the current harvest,” COCERAL said.

France, a major wheat producer, is expected to produce 33.9 million tons this year, marking a 7% decrease from the 2023 estimate of 36.3 million tons. Ukraine, with over 22 million tons of wheat production last year, anticipates a 13% decrease to 19 million tons this year. In contrast, Spain, which produced 2.9 million tons of wheat last year, is projected to witness a remarkable 103% increase, reaching 5.9 million tons in 2024.

Forecasts for other significant wheat producers, including durum wheat, are as follows:

Germany: 21.7 million tons
UK: 13.5 million tons
Poland: 12.4 million tons
Romania: 9.2 million tons
Italy: 6.8 million tons
Bulgaria: 6.5 million tons

The forecast for barley production in the EU-27+UK for 2024 stands at 56.1 million tons, marking an increase from the 54.1 million tons harvested in 2023. Denmark, Finland, and Spain are anticipated to witness improved crops compared to the previous year, highlighting positive trends in these regions.

Preliminary data on corn crops suggest a total of 57.1 million tons, indicating a decrease from the 61.6 million tons harvested in 2023. One of the noteworthy aspects of COCERAL's forecast is the projection for rapeseed, with the 2024 crop estimated at 11.3 million tons. This represents a significant upswing from the previous forecast of 7.5 million tons.

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