Corn prices across the Black Sea region are likely to remain subdued, according to a recent S&P Global Commodity Insights report. The article, written by Amrutha Dileep Chingoroth, attributes this trend to a more optimistic harvest forecast for the 2025/26 season in key exporting countries such as Romania, Ukraine, and Bulgaria.

Favorable planting conditions and expanded acreage are expected to significantly boost corn yields across the region. Romania’s corn output, for example, is projected to increase by 76% year-on-year, reaching 11.4 million tonnes, up from 6.46 million tonnes in the previous drought-affected season.

Bulgaria is also forecast to more than double its production, reaching 3.3 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s corn output is estimated at 31 million tonnes for MY 2025/26, up from 25 million tonnes.

A representative from the Serbian Grain Association noted: “The planting for corn is completed, and the area is the same as in previous years. We expect a higher yield and production than last year.”

This anticipated supply surge is already pressuring forward prices. On June 9, Ukrainian new crop corn was offered at $216/mt FOB POC, while old crop corn was assessed by Platts at $236/mt for July 7–21 loading. From Romania and Bulgaria’s Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB) port complex, new crop offers stood at $215/mt, with bids around $212/mt for October-November delivery.

At the Balkans and Black Sea Conference held in Istanbul on June 2, traders expressed optimism regarding both yields and supply volumes for the new crop. As a result, demand has shifted away from old crop contracts, which now primarily involve spot trades. As of June 9, Platts assessed Ukrainian corn FOB CVB at $239/mt for July loading.

However, not all market participants are fully confident. One Bulgarian trader offered a cautious reminder: “At this point last year, everything was normal, and then the heatwave struck, which destroyed the crop.”