A new bout of heat and below-normal rainfall is tightening moisture availability across Argentina’s main grain belt, raising concerns that 2025/26 corn and soybean yield potential could slip if widespread rains do not arrive soon.

The timing is notable: sowing is close to wrapping up, meaning a large share of fields are moving into early development with soil moisture trending lower. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has recently reported planting progress at 93.1% for corn and 96.2% for soybeans, leaving much of the crop exposed to weather risk as it transitions into yield-setting phases.

High temperatures have accelerated evapotranspiration and increased the “rain urgency” in key producing areas. Some analysts estimate that parts of the region would need roughly 70–80 mm of rainfall to stabilise conditions and limit further deterioration in crop conditions. Condition assessments have started to soften in some updates, with the Rosario Grain Exchange flagging weaker crop health in affected zones as the hot, dry pattern persists.

USDA’s January 2026 WASDE pegs Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat crop at a record 27.5 million tonnes, while keeping corn output at 53.0 million tonnes and soybean production at 48.5 million tonnes, underlining Argentina’s weight in global supply expectations.

Any meaningful shift in Argentina’s production outlook can feed quickly into international price formation, given the country’s role in global feed grain flows and oilseed-product exports. If the current pattern extends, market attention will remain on whether upcoming rains are sufficient not only to steady near-term sentiment, but also to rebuild measurable soil moisture—an essential variable for holding yield potential together in the weeks ahead.