The General Manager of the Turkish Grain Board (TMO), Ahmet Güldal, spoke at the 2025 Pre-Harvest Congress of the National Grain Council held in Mardin. Despite the lack of rainfall in 2024, Güldal noted that yield expectations remain positive, emphasizing that TMO is fully prepared for all scenarios thanks to its robust stock structure. “There will be no grain supply issues in Turkey,” he said.
Speaking at the closing session of the 2025 Pre-Harvest Grain Congress of the National Grain Council (UHK) held in Mardin, TMO General Manager Ahmet Güldal delivered important messages to industry representatives and participants. Güldal noted that the meeting had been productive and shared significant insights that would shed light on both the sector and the country's agriculture.
Thanking the attendees for their keen interest in the congress, which he described as highly valuable for the sector, Güldal highlighted the significance of the National Grain Council as a platform that brings together all stakeholders. “This congress offers a comprehensive opportunity to assess the current state, developments, expectations, and proposed solutions for the grain sector both in Turkey and globally. The insights shared here today will guide the work of our Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry,” he stated.
"The Sector’s Current Outlook Was Reflected"
Güldal stressed that the timing of the congress was highly appropriate. Held just 15–20 days before the harvest season, the meeting addressed current topics such as costs, price expectations, and government support. “A snapshot of the current state of the sector was taken here today. We have greatly benefited from these assessments,” he said.
Güldal thanked Kızıltepe Commodity Exchange, Mardin Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mardin Organized Industrial Zone, Kızıltepe CCI, and the Dicle Flour Industrialists Association for hosting the event. “I congratulate all institutions and sponsors for successfully organizing such an event in the heart of the Fertile Crescent,” he added.
"We Managed a Different Crisis Each Year"
“In recent years, we have all experienced difficult periods together. We held frequent evaluations and explained our actions as TMO,” said General Manager Güldal, drawing attention to global crises and the measures taken. “We have many instruments at our disposal to regulate and stabilize the market. Over the past 5–6 years, we have implemented most of them—and continue to do so. The relevant measures were taken in line with the needs arising from market dynamics, global circumstances, and geopolitical developments. Each year brought a different yield scenario. The world has not seen a period of peace, health, and security free from war. We have had to manage a different scenario every year. Currency crises, the pandemic, the Ukraine–Russia war, and the severe drought of 2021 all required new measures and implementations each year. These were executed by our state through the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and TMO,” he explained.
Güldal recalled that 8.1 million tons of grain were imported in 2021 due to drought, and that the Ukraine–Russia war and the pandemic had also seriously impacted the markets. “As TMO, we had to manage a new scenario each year. But we successfully handled every crisis thanks to the decisive steps of our state,” he said.
He also emphasized that despite increased stock protectionism worldwide during the pandemic, Turkey managed to maintain stable prices. “Sector stakeholders played a huge role in this success. No product shortages were experienced, and our citizens were not subjected to stress,” he remarked.
"TMO Reached a Record Stock Level"
Noting that a historic yield was achieved in 2023, Güldal said, “Due to the private sector’s lack of interest and appetite for procurement, TMO received overwhelming demand. We said we would buy—and we did. That year, we purchased 13.1 million tons of grain and made payments totaling 101 billion TL. We did not let producers down. In 2024, we also procured 5 million tons. At the time, we were one of the institutions holding the largest stockpiles globally, with 17.3 million tons. These stocks even impacted global markets. For example, one of our decisions can influence the Chicago Board of Trade by 2–3%, and under certain scenarios, even up to 7%.”
“During the 2024 harvest period, we gradually restricted imports. From June 21 to September 12, we suspended imports under the Inward Processing Regime. Then, we implemented a structure of 15% imports and 85% TMO-sourced supply. As of January 2025, this changed to 25% imports and 75% TMO sources. However, due to the risk of meteorological drought turning into agricultural drought, we ended this policy on March 19 and returned to the pre-June 21, 2024 regime. I thank our sector representatives for their efforts to prevent export disruptions. As of September 2024, our stocks had declined to 10.6 million tons—still a record,” he said.
We Have Suffered the Costs of Stock Shortages in the Past—We Don't Want to Relive Them
Sharing his views on expectations for the 2025 harvest season, Güldal emphasized that even in the worst-case scenario, Turkey would not experience a grain shortage despite the drought risk. “From October 2024 to March 2025, we saw a 30% rainfall deficit. Rainfall in March and April will significantly influence yield. In 2023, heavy rains followed the February earthquakes, leading to a high yield. Last year as well, rain came at the end of March and beginning of April. As TMO, we foresee the drought risk, but we guarantee that even in the worst-case scenario, there will be no grain shortage. April and May rains will determine the yield, but we are prepared for all scenarios. We are taking all necessary stock preservation measures accordingly. We have experienced the costs of being without stock in the past—we do not want to relive that. For the 2025 harvest season, we have completed our planning in terms of personnel, storage, and financing. Financially, we are in the most prepared position of recent years. I wish everyone a bountiful harvest season,” he said.
"The Quality of Our Stocks Is Above Global Standards"
Güldal also addressed recent public debates regarding stock quality. “Of our 17.3 million tons of stock, 87% is of high or medium quality. Our loss rate is just 0.058%—well below global standards,” he stated. Noting that even products stored in open piles are being safely preserved, he said, “Terms like ‘grain graves’ have been used. We sold 10.6 million tons of wheat—about 5 million tons of that came from open piles. Only 1 million tons remain now. Our loss rate is below 1%, specifically 0.058%. This is a world-class success. Sector representatives have also helped inform the public on this issue—I thank them for that,” he added.
Advice to Farmers: Certified Seeds, Balanced Fertilization
Güldal also offered key advice to producers, stressing the importance of using certified seeds, balanced fertilization, timely pesticide application, and preventing harvest losses. He recalled that due to stem rust disease, some regions experienced crop losses in 2023, and he underlined the need for timely spraying.
He also stated that efforts are underway to develop the licensed warehousing system. “Licensed warehouses are private sector investments. We want our producers to benefit more from this system,” he concluded.