The dynamics of global trade are evolving daily, with geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and trade wars influencing grain markets. Gürsel Erbap, Chairman of the Board of the Turkish Grain Suppliers Association (HUBUDER), emphasizes that “The key to sustainable growth lies in cooperation rather than competition. As HUBUDER, we want an environment where trade cooperation, not trade wars, thrives both in our country and globally, alongside peace and stability. Countries are dependent on each other in the agriculture and food sectors, and global cooperation is essential for lasting solutions.”
The global economy has been undergoing a major transformation in recent years due to geopolitical uncertainties, climate change, and fluctuations in trade policies. The grain sector, positioned at the heart of these changes, faces significant challenges in ensuring supply and price stability. However, in such a period, taking steps to turn crises into opportunities and strengthening trade cooperation becomes critically important.
Gürsel Erbap
Chairman HUBUDER
In this context, we spoke with Gürsel Erbap, Chairman of the Board of the Turkish Grain Suppliers Association (HUBUDER), to gain insights into the current state of grain trade, the challenges faced, proposed solutions, and the future of the sector. With 34 years of experience in the industry and active board memberships, Mr. Erbap stands out as a figure who effectively collaborates with both the public and private sectors.
Our conversation with Mr. Erbap offers valuable perspectives on HUBUDER’s role in the sector, the association’s goals, and the opportunities and risks in grain trade. We also touch on critical issues such as the importance of increasing female employment in the sector and the impact of evolving trade policies.
Mr. Erbap, can you briefly introduce yourself? Could you share details about your education, professional experience, and active roles in the sector?
I was born in 1965 in the Tutak, Ağrı. After completing my primary and secondary education in Ankara, I graduated from Tutak High School as the top student. In 1988, I graduated with top honors from the Faculty of Agriculture at Yüzüncü Yıl University as an Agricultural Engineer. I later completed my master’s degree in Agricultural Engineering at Trakya University. To further enhance my professional knowledge and skills, I received specialized training at the Bühler Milling Engineering School in Switzerland and Germany.
I have been serving as a professional manager and founding partner in the food sector, particularly in the flour, starch, and glucose industries, for 34 years. I have actively served on the boards of the Turkish Flour Industrialists’ Federation, the Marmara Region Flour Industrialists’ Association, and the Istanbul Exporters’ Association. Between 2011 and 2013, I served as the Chairman of the Board of the Tekirdağ Sports Club, highlighting my commitment to sports and social responsibility. Currently, I serve as a member of the Board of Directors of the Tekirdağ Commodity Exchange and as the Chairman of the Board of Directors and Executive Board of Doruk Un Sanayi A.Ş., of which I am a founding partner. Since December 21, 2024, I have also been serving as the Chairman of the Board of the Turkish Grain Suppliers Association (HUBUDER).
What can you tell us about HUBUDER? What are its activities and contributions to the sector?
The Turkish Grain Suppliers Association was established in 2012 to bring together companies engaged in grain trade under one roof and to lead practices that contribute to the interests of the sector and the country in grain trade. Its headquarters is in Istanbul. The association’s goal is to promote solidarity among its members and to remove barriers to free trade, thereby ensuring the optimal utilization of potential in grain trade.
In this context, HUBUDER works to increase the sector’s international integration and competitiveness, coordinates efforts between the public and private sectors, communicates issues and solution proposals related to grain trade to the public and relevant authorities, and engages in activities to enhance trade among its members.
As of today, we have 165 members, making HUBUDER the umbrella civil society organization of our sector. Our members operate in 15 different fields, including domestic and international trade, flour and feed industries, licensed warehousing, logistics, and customs brokerage.
Additionally, every May, we organize the International Grain Conference in Türkiye and the World Towards Harvest. The next conference, which will be the 10th edition, will be held on May 8–9, 2025, at the Ankara Sheraton Hotel. The entire sector is invited to join us.
What are the biggest challenges you face in the grain markets? What steps would you recommend to overcome these challenges?
Global issues such as geopolitical uncertainties, trade wars, climate change, and logistical disruptions are deeply affecting supply and price stability in the grain sector and the global economy. It is clear that Türkiye has a major advantage in addressing these challenges due to its strategic geographical position, acting as a bridge between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. To better leverage this advantage, our priorities include improving the entire logistics infrastructure, including transportation, optimizing our import-export balance, and supporting domestic production.
As HUBUDER, we closely monitor international trade agreements and develop sectoral policies to support local producers. Our strategic priorities include encouraging research on drought-resistant seeds and grains to promote digitalization, data-driven solutions, and sustainable agricultural practices. Additionally, we place great importance on infrastructure projects that ensure food supply security during crisis periods and enhancing the market regulation capacity of the Turkish Grain Board (TMO).
How does your sector approach collaboration and coordination with the public sector? How would you assess the role of public-private cooperation in the grain sector and the current state of this cooperation?
The Turkish grain sector in is a strategic area where public and private sectors need to work together. While the government is responsible for food security and supply planning, the private sector contributes market dynamism and innovative solutions. However, effective communication and coordination are essential for both sides to work harmoniously.
The public sector plays a regulatory role in critical areas such as customs duties, import-export regulations, and strategic reserve planning. The transparency and predictability of these policies make it easier for the private sector to plan and invest.
As HUBUDER, we organize regular meetings and workshops to establish a transparent and sustainable partnership with the public sector. A key part of our efforts is ensuring that the government considers the perspectives of the private sector more effectively. This is crucial because coordinated measures to manage resources and respond to unexpected challenges facilitate stable and timely interventions in grain supply.
What steps do you believe are crucial for improving the grain trade in Türkiye?
In our view, the main issues in grain trade that require improvement are as follows:
- Reducing production costs,
- Incentives to increase production and international trade of strategic products such as wheat, barley, and corn,
- Transparent and consistent policies on imports, exports, and customs duties,
- Aligning the Turkish Grain Board’s (TMO) sales policies to cover the entire sector,
- Addressing deficiencies in logistics infrastructure,
- Simplifying regulations.
We believe that solving these issues will require closer cooperation between the public and private sectors. As HUBUDER, we take on the mission of being the voice and advisor of the sector in addressing these problems.
What are the medium- and long-term goals set by the Turkish Grain Suppliers Association? Can you share information about the work you are doing toward these goals?
As an association, our primary goals are as follows:
Medium-Term Goals:
- Guiding our sector stakeholders on measures to enhance national competitiveness in grain trade, contributing to their technical and commercial development,
- Organizing domestic and international sectoral study tours to guide our stakeholders,
- Strengthening cooperation with public institutions,
- Preparing reports on domestic and international grain markets and informing our sector,
- Organizing annual congresses and workshops to set the sector’s agenda.
Long-Term Goals:
- Developing projects for young and female farmers,
- Securing resources for the sector through European Union and international funds,
- Developing sectoral social responsibility projects,
- Transforming HUBUDER into a more effective and institutionalized organization,
- Implementing adaptation projects for agricultural production in response to climate change.
How do you evaluate the key opportunities and risks in Türkiye’s grain markets? What strategies should be developed to ensure the sector’s sustainability?
Opportunities:
- Proximity to major grain producers such as Ukraine, Russia, and the EU,
- Geographic proximity to export markets,
- Strategic location as a logistics hub for land and sea transportation,
- Advanced technological infrastructure and global experience in milling,
- Extensive experience in the production and consumption of bakery products and grains,
- Emerging market opportunities due to the growing global population,
- The scale of our national feed sector.
Challenges:
- High production costs in Türkiye,
- The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity,
- Economic disruptions in all trading markets following the major pandemic and the resulting regulatory changes,
- Risks in logistics, increased costs, and delays due to wars and related terrorist attacks in our region and neighboring geographies over the past three years.
As HUBUDER, we are focused on making the most of these opportunities and building a resilient sector against these challenges by investing in innovative technologies, developing international cooperation projects, and ensuring the sector’s long-term sustainability.
WE EXPECT A HARVEST OF OVER 20 MILLION TONS
Recent snowfall and rainfall across the country have been seen as significant developments for grain production. How will these weather conditions affect wheat yields? Can you share your latest harvest forecast?
Winter grain planting for the 2024/25 season has been completed. However, from October to the end of January, rainfall across the country was below both 2024 levels and the long-term average. Precipitation was particularly low in Central Anatolia, where 37% of planting takes place, and in Southeastern Anatolia, which accounts for 15% of total planting. Although snow and partial rainfall in February have slightly improved the situation, rainfall in March and April will be critical for plant development and yield. According to our estimates, durum wheat planting will decrease by 4–5%, while bread wheat planting will increase by 2–3%, and barley planting will decline by around 1–2%. Considering planting data and current weather conditions, if the climate follows a normal pattern in March, April, and May, we expect wheat production to be slightly below last year’s total of 20.8 million tons.
US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs has reignited global trade wars. How might these tariffs, and the resulting trade tensions between countries, affect grain prices, particularly wheat? How will Türkiye be impacted by this situation?
First of all, I would like to state that at HUBUDER, we support an environment of peace and stability both in our country and globally, where trade cooperation—not trade wars— can flourishes.
In the agriculture and food sector, countries may implement temporary measures to secure food security for their citizens in response to supply and demand fluctuations. This is understandable. However, it is important to remember that no country in the world can produce all the agricultural products it needs. Therefore, countries are interdependent when it comes to food supply. In this respect, Türkiye is relatively fortunate. For this reason, I don’t expect Türkiye to be significantly affected by the situation. However, I believe that Türkiye’s flour and pasta industry, where we are global leaders in exports, could face some negative impacts. Global wheat prices have been trending upward recently, but we expect them to stabilize with the upcoming harvest in Türkiye and neighboring countries in the next two to three months.
WOMEN ARE PRESENT IN EVERY ASPECT OF THE GRAIN SECTOR
The grain sector has traditionally been known as a male-dominated field. However, under your leadership, we see that HUBUDER’s board includes a female vice president and several female members. What would you like to say about the role and influence of women in the sector?
At HUBUDER, we value and take pride in the presence of women among our members and, naturally, on our Board of Directors. Throughout human history, women have made significant contributions in every field of work. In families, women play a crucial role in managing household organization, keeping the family together, and raising children who represent the future. In fact, we can see the impact of women’s work on projects in every area of agriculture and trade throughout history. Today, we observe that women are at the forefront of modern and progressive civil society organizations.
Women’s role in agriculture extends beyond production. They also play a significant part in preserving ecological balance, passing down traditional agricultural knowledge, and establishing sustainable food systems. Strengthening women’s rights in the agricultural sector enhances food security, reduces poverty, and accelerates rural development. Grain trade is an extension of women’s overall contribution to the agricultural sector. Women participate in many stages of the grain production and trade chain, from planting to harvesting, from storage to marketing. However, they are often underrepresented in official trade networks and have more limited economic opportunities compared to men.
At HUBUDER, we believe that women’s role in management, membership, and commercial activities is crucial, and we aim to increase their presence within our organization.