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Black Sea wheat prices experienced their most significant average monthly increase in February since last August, as severe weather conditions and logistical bottlenecks at key ports tightened near-term supplies.

In an assessment for Miller Magazine, IGC Executive Director Arnaud Petit clarifies that while tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns over energy, freight and fertilizer markets, the disruption does not mirror the systemic grain supply shock seen in the Black Sea.

Escalating hostilities involving Iran and the de facto shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz are rapidly repricing risk across shipping, insurance and energy, lifting delivered grain costs, tightening fertilizer availability and raising food-security concerns in import-dependent markets across the Gulf and beyond.

From dream-based wheat forecasts in ancient Egypt to today’s algorithms processing millions of data points... Can artificial intelligence truly predict wheat prices?

Although wheat prices have fallen from the peak earlier this year, global wheat prices remain elevated, reflective of both uncertainty in the market based on disrupted trade flows in the Black Sea region and the continued decline in the stocks of several major exporters.

“The grain market continues its inertial movement in an upward trend. Insignificant precipitation...