Dr. Tapasya Jain
Director
AgPulse Analytica

As India enters the marketing year (MY) 2026/27 (April 2026 to March 2027), the wheat sector stands at a pivotal juncture, balancing robust production prospects with evolving trade policies and market dynamics. From AgPulse’s viewpoint, the outlook is optimistic, driven by expanded acreage and improved yields, though global price parity suggests limited export traction despite recent policy relaxations on wheat and wheat product exports.

AgPulse projects wheat production at 130 million metric tons (MMT) for MY 2026/27, a significant increase from 117.5 MMT in 2025/26 and 113 MMT in 2024/25. This growth stems from an estimated harvested area of 34.7 million hectares (ha), up 6.8% from 32.5 million ha last year, coupled with a yield of 3.75 metric tons per hectare (MT/ha), improving from 3.62 MT/ha. These figures reflect favorable sowing trends and anticipated weather patterns, contrasting with more conservative government estimates that peg total production closer to 119 MMT.

Latest available sowing data (as of January 30) supports this upbeat assessment. Wheat acreage reached 33.417 million ha, 1.87% higher than the 32.804 million ha sown in the previous rabi season and 7% above the normal area of 31.235 million ha. This exceeds the target of 33.073 million ha, signalling strong farmer participation amid stable minimum support prices. The Rabi planting progress figures were not released after this. AgPulse’s higher aggregate estimate accounts for potential yield enhancements from better seed varieties and irrigation, pushing beyond the summed government projections of 119 MMT.

On the supply side, AgPulse forecasts carry-in stocks at 21.78 MMT. With minimal imports of 0.15 MMT consistent with recent trends of 0.2-0.34 MMT annually total supply is expected to reach 151.93 MMT. Domestic consumption is projected at 115 MMT, a moderate rise from 112.5 MMT last year, driven by population growth and stable food security programs. Exports are conservatively estimated at 1 MMT, leaving ending stocks at a comfortable 35.93 MMT, up sharply from 21.78 MMT.

PROCUREMENT

Food Corporation of India (FCI) data underscores this supply strength. For MY 2025/26, FCI procured 30 MMT, with state-wise figures showing Punjab at 11.91 MMT, Madhya Pradesh at 7.77 MMT, Haryana at 7.06 MMT, Rajasthan at 2.14 MMT, and Uttar Pradesh at 1.04 MMT. Distribution under schemes like NFSA remains steady, with monthly allocations averaging 1.3-2 MMT, ensuring buffer norms are met.

STOCKS

The grains (including wheat, rice and coarse cereals) stocks with FCI, as reported for January 1 were highest ever at 58.401 MMT. We expect FCI to end the marketing year, with a carryover of 16.954 MMT and a large procurement plan will swell the stockpile with the government agency.

EXPORT POTENTIAL

Recent policy changes have introduced a degree of openness to exports, potentially influencing demand. In January 2026, the government amended the export policy for wheat products (HS Code 1101, including flour, maida, and semolina), allowing up to 0.5 MMT under DGFT authorization after a three-year prohibition. This was followed in February 2026 by a more significant relaxation: approval for 2.5 MMT of wheat exports (HS Code 1001) and an additional 0.5 MMT of wheat products. 

The 2022 ban, extended through 2024 due to heat-induced crop losses, had curtailed exports to near-zero for wheat grain, though products saw sporadic allowances. Trade data reflects this shift: wheat exports (1001) were negligible at 0-2.4 KMT monthly in 2025, while products (1101) ranged from 5.8-11.4 KMT, indicating policy’s role in channelling surplus.

However, price parity calculations suggest these changes may not spur substantial demand for Indian wheat internationally. The fact that Indian wheat remains pricier than global equivalents, we expect reduced competitiveness and is unlikely to attract significant export demand.

In summary, AgPulse views MY 2026/27 as a year of abundance for Indian wheat, with production hitting 130 MMT on expanded area and yields. While policy easing on exports provides outlets for surplus, elevated domestic prices relative to parity levels temper expectations for robust international demand. Stakeholders should monitor procurement progress and weather for any adjustments.About AgPulse Analytica