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Few countries shape global wheat trade like Egypt. Still the world’s largest wheat importer — buying around 12–13 MMT annually — Egypt remains the ultimate benchmark for MENA grain trade, with every procurement reform in Cairo sending ripples through global markets.

Record harvests alone no longer guarantee competitive grain prices. For millers, shipping routes, freight indices, energy costs, and climate-driven disruptions now weigh as heavily as yields in shaping margins. Logistics has become the true battleground of grain competitiveness.

Another record harvest is expected for the global grains market in 2025/26, however, sentiment is far from uniformly bearish. Although overall supply and demand balances point to comfortable availabilities, each grain is showing its own dynamics.

Since the onset of the marketing year in July, the Black Sea wheat market has faced significant challenges - delayed harvests, slow exports, and logistical issues have hindered price reductions compared to previous seasons.

The Black Sea region has long anchored global wheat trade with its aggressive pricing and geographic advantage — especially in the MENA region. But as weather volatility rises and competitors regroup, the balance is shifting. In this article, we explore how shifting production dynamics and geopolitical tensions are redrawing the trade map in one of the world’s most import-dependent regions.

Global wheat production is set to reach 800.1 million tonnes in 2025 with only marginal growth, while world stocks are forecast to decline to their lowest level since 2021/22. International trade is expected to partially rebound, supported by a sharp increase in import demand from Asian countries.

The IGC’s latest projections suggest a 3% increase in global grain production in 2025/26, driven by yield recovery in key exporters. With wheat and maize output forecast at record highs and moderate growth in global trade volumes, the new season may offer improved market balance despite persistent risks from regional weather patterns and shifting demand centers.

Yes, Brazil and Argentina are poised to gain market share as China moves away from U.S. suppliers, particularly for agricultural products like soybeans, corn, and meat.

In this special feature, ASAP Agri’s Chief Analysts Inna Stepanenko and Kateryna Mudriian unpack the evolving dynamics in U.S. -China trade and examine whether the Black Sea region — particularly Ukraine, Russia, and Romania — is ready to step in and fill the gap left by the U.S. absence in Chinese imports, or whether South America will ultimately capture the lion’s share of demand.

As the U.S. reinstates tariffs on key trading partners, the global grain market is facing unprecedented disruptions. With escalating trade tensions and retaliatory measures from Canada, China, and Mexico, the U.S.'s once-dominant position in global grain exports is now under threat.

Ukraine’s grain export flows have undergone significant shifts this season, with Turkey emerging as a major buyer of Ukrainian corn, while Spain’s share has dropped significantly.

After a strong export performance in the first half of the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine’s wheat shipments now face mounting challenges.