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The Ukrainian barley market this season leaves very little space for debate — it points to one clear conclusion: this is the weakest season in almost twenty years.

Speaking at EuroGrainExchange in Bucharest, Peter Clubb, Market Analyst at the International Grains Council (IGC), said global grain markets are entering the new season with comfortable supplies and relatively low prices following record crops in 2025/26.

In 2022, the grain market watched grain vessels stranded in the Black Sea Ukrainian ports. In early 2026, attention shifted to oil tankers, fertilizer flows, and insurance costs around the Strait of Hormuz. The source of disruption has changed. The lessons, however, are largely the same.

The war in the Middle East and the disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have added a new layer of instability to regional grain and oilseed markets, with the impact extending far beyond the Gulf itself.

Global agricultural markets are currently facing a profound paradox. The 2025/26 season is defined by abundance, with record-breaking volumes across almost every major commodity. However, the physical movement of this supply is under severe pressure.

Black Sea wheat values have entered 2026 on low footing, with ample global supply and fierce exporter competition keeping rallies short lived and the market trapped in a narrow range.

Global grain markets enter February 2026 in a condition that appears deceptively calm. Production is ample, inventories are rebuilt, and prices have drifted into narrow ranges that suggest equilibrium.

The 2025/26 wheat season has opened in clear surplus mode, with global production projected at 837.8 MMT (+37 MMT y/y) and ending stocks rising to 274.9 MMT, keeping buyers comfortable and rallies hard to sustain.

The past three years have kept agricultural prices under pressure—large crops, cheap cash markets and comfortable balance sheets left 2025 on a bearish note and squeezed producer margins.

The 2025/26 cereals landscape combines abundant supply with historically high demand, while the market’s most significant risks stem not from fields but from economics and geopolitics. Understanding this balance will be key to navigating the months ahead.

Few countries shape global wheat trade like Egypt. Still the world’s largest wheat importer — buying around 12–13 MMT annually — Egypt remains the ultimate benchmark for MENA grain trade, with every procurement reform in Cairo sending ripples through global markets.

Record harvests alone no longer guarantee competitive grain prices. For millers, shipping routes, freight indices, energy costs, and climate-driven disruptions now weigh as heavily as yields in shaping margins. Logistics has become the true battleground of grain competitiveness.