Black Sea wheat prices experienced their most significant average monthly increase in February since last August, as severe weather conditions and logistical bottlenecks at key ports tightened near-term supplies.

According to assessments by Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, the Milling Wheat Marker (MWM) averaged $231.32/mt in February. This represents a notable jump from January’s average of $227.19/mt and marks the highest level since August’s $237.75/mt. The price rally was primarily fueled by harsh winter weather, particularly affecting Russian ports. Operations at Kavkaz were severely hindered, rendering the port nearly unusable for much of February and forcing a redirection of volumes to Novorossiisk.

Market participants have highlighted the severity of the situation. "There are huge delays at the deep-sea terminals," a trader of Russian wheat told Platts, emphasizing the strain on terminal lineups. While conditions at Kavkaz are expected to improve after mid-March, a Russia-based seller noted that wheat availability from southern farmers remains low.

Despite these disruptions, Russian wheat shipments for March including rolled-over cargoes from February are forecast at 3.5 million mt, according to the analytical center Rusagrotrans. As of March 2, Platts assessed the MWM at $235/mt, at parity with Russian 12.5% protein wheat.

UKRAINE FACES RECORD CARRYOVER RISKS

In Ukraine, the market sentiment is dominated by large old-crop stocks and constrained export logistics. Currently, Odesa’s export capacity is operating at only 30% of pre-war levels due to ongoing conflict-related strikes. While some sellers believe Ukraine’s target of shipping 13 million mt this season is achievable if the current pace holds, others are more cautious. A Ukrainian seller warned Platts that if export momentum falters, total shipments could slip to 11 million mt, potentially resulting in record carryover stocks of nearly 6 million mt.

GLOBAL TENDERS AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

Strong demand from key buyers like Egypt, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia continues to provide a floor for prices. A recent tender by Saudi Arabia (GFSA) on February 27 underscored rising costs, with the kingdom paying an average of $272.52/mt C&F—approximately $12/mt more than previous purchases.

However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are adding layers of uncertainty. Market participants informed Platts that freight rates to the Red Sea are rising due to increased insurance costs and a general reluctance to fix vessels. Any potential disruption at the Bab al-Mandab Strait is now viewed as a critical risk for routes serving African destinations.

Looking ahead to the 2026 harvest, the initial outlook for Black Sea winter wheat is generally positive with minimal winterkill reported so far. Nevertheless, traders remain wary of "damaging anomalies" during the critical March–May window, recalling the cold snap in April 2024 that devastated crops in southern Russia.