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In an assessment for Miller Magazine, IGC Executive Director Arnaud Petit clarifies that while tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns over energy, freight and fertilizer markets, the disruption does not mirror the systemic grain supply shock seen in the Black Sea.

Escalating hostilities involving Iran and the de facto shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz are rapidly repricing risk across shipping, insurance and energy, lifting delivered grain costs, tightening fertilizer availability and raising food-security concerns in import-dependent markets across the Gulf and beyond.

Dmitri Rylko, Director of Moscow-based IKAR, told TUSAF delegates in Antalya that a surging ruble, rising logistics costs and an unusual quality mix are slowing Russia’s wheat export pace—so far reaching only 62% of its export potential.

The 2025/26 wheat season has opened in clear surplus mode, with global production projected at 837.8 MMT (+37 MMT y/y) and ending stocks rising to 274.9 MMT, keeping buyers comfortable and rallies hard to sustain.

AD Ports Group has signed a 50-year land lease agreement with Al Ain Mills, a member of Al Hazaa Investment Group.

The Russia-Ukraine war has significantly disrupted Black Sea grain logistics, reshaping trade flows, sparking infrastructure investments, and altering market strategies.