Dmitri Rylko, Director of Moscow-based IKAR, told TUSAF delegates in Antalya that a surging ruble, rising logistics costs and an unusual quality mix are slowing Russia’s wheat export pace—so far reaching only 62% of its export potential. He said Russia’s wheat exports are increasingly concentrated along a “Russian wheat cross” that accounts for 75% of shipments, while Russia’s wheat flour exports fell by half in 2025 after a 1.2 mln t record in 2024.

Russia’s wheat export program is running well below last season’s pace despite ample supply, as a stronger ruble, weather-related disruptions in Black Sea loading and an unusually tight “blending” availability of lower-protein wheat weigh on competitiveness, Dmitri Rylko, director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), said at the TUSAF 20th International Congress and Exhibition.

Presenting at the “The Search for a New Balance in Global Grain Markets” session, Rylko said the ruble has outperformed “all global currencies,” while domestic prices for most agricultural commodities in February 2026 were lower than a year earlier—an uncomfortable combination for an export-oriented sector that ships more than USD 40 billion in agri-food products annually.

ONLY 62% OF WHEAT EXPORT POTENTIAL REALIZED SO FAR

Rylko said Russia is producing around 91 million tonnes of wheat (including Crimea) with an export potential of roughly 46 million tonnes, yet exports this season are “lagging” and have reached only 62% of potential, one of the lowest such ratios on record. He added that total grain exports are also running below the previous three seasons.

EXPORTS NARROW TO A ‘RUSSIAN WHEAT CROSS’

Rylko said Russia’s export footprint has narrowed, with shipments concentrated in what he described as a “Russian wheat cross” stretching from Morocco to Iran, and from Turkey across eastern Africa down to South Africa. This season, that corridor accounts for 75% of Russia’s wheat exports—an unusually high concentration, he said. Turkey remains Russia’s key buyer and is currently the No. 2 destination for Russian wheat, Rylko said, but volumes are far from record levels.

LOW-PROTEIN WHEAT ‘MISSING’ IN THE SOUTH

Rylko highlighted an unusual quality profile: he estimated that 90% of Russia’s export flows shipped via the Azov region and new Baltic logistics capacity are 12.5% protein wheat or higher. Exporters are increasingly concerned they may have to sell 13.5%+ wheat as 12.5% because there is no lower-protein wheat needed for blending available in sufficient volumes. He said wheat at 11.5% protein and below is essentially absent in southern Russia, or priced so high that it is immediately absorbed by domestic feed mills, leaving little affordable supply for exporters.

RAIL HAUL TO NOVOROSSIYSK HITS 1,800 KM, MAY TOP 2,000 KM

The supply shift away from the traditional “gross south” is also raising logistics costs, Rylko said. For the first time, the south accounts for only 58% of total wheat export potential, meaning more grain must travel longer distances to reach export ports.

He said IKAR estimates the weighted average rail distance of grain delivered to Novorossiysk has already reached 1,800 km as of January and could rise above 2,000 km later in the season—pushing up costs and potentially pressuring average export quality as shipments draw more heavily from the Volga, Siberia and Urals, where issues such as insect damage and low falling numbers are more common.

AZOV COASTERS TAKING A MONTH TO LOAD

Rylko said January weather cut effective Black Sea loading capacity by about half, and February started poorly, with the Azov Sea showing 25 cm of ice. He also pointed to unspecified “logistical issues” that market participants would recognize.

Freight conditions have deteriorated sharply, he said, with small coasters calling at Azov ports taking around one month on average to load—an unusually long turnaround that inflates freight rates.

PRICE VIEW: ONE–TWO WEEKS OF SUPPORT, THEN BEARISH RISKS

Rylko said wheat prices could see modest near-term support for “one or two weeks” due to infrastructure constraints and adverse weather in Russian and Ukrainian ports. Beyond that, he warned of renewed downward pressure from ample unsold export capacity across the broader Black Sea and nearby region—including Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary—relative to last year.

Russia’s export quota runs from Feb. 15 to June 13, but Rylko argued the quota is not the primary constraint this season. Instead, he said export potential may remain unrealized because of currency strength, logistics and quality constraints.

2026/27 EARLY OUTLOOK

Looking ahead, Rylko said IKAR has revised its preliminary 2026/27 wheat production estimate up from 88 million tonnes to 91 million tonnes, with wheat export potential seen at around 47 million tonnes, higher than this season. He put total grain export potential at 63.5 million tonnes, while cautioning it is still too early for firm projections.

RUSSIA’S FLOUR EXPORTS HALVE AFTER 2024 RECORD

Rylko also flagged “hidden but tectonic” change in Russia’s domestic flour milling industry, with major producers gradually shifting into functional flours and investing heavily in processing capacity. At the same time, Russia’s wheat flour exports have fallen sharply. Rylko said shipments hit a record 1.2 million tonnes in 2024, with industry ambitions to expand to 1.5–2.0 million tonnes, but exports halved in 2025. He attributed the decline to the stronger ruble and Russia’s wheat export duty, arguing that when the duty compresses processing economics, flour exports “languish” with little incentive to expand.

Rylko said Turkey appears to have overtaken Egypt as a key competitor in regional flour trade, while Kazakhstan has overtaken Uzbekistan as a competitor but faces aggressive expansion by Uzbek exporters. He added that Kazakhstan has been exploring new taxation measures aimed at improving competitiveness by at least slowing exports, though the market impact remains to be seen.