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A new trade framework between Washington and Beijing has reignited optimism across global grain markets. The agreement—anchored by China’s pledge to buy 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans annually—has lifted prices and confidence among exporters.

Markets are mispricing grain risk. Tight wheat balances, shifting flows and a slower China will shape 2025/26, says Andrey Sizov, Managing Director of SovEcon.

Despite falling commodity prices, a new World Bank analysis warns that input costs, geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, and extreme weather continue to destabilize global agricultural markets, while long-term risks like climate change and biofuel policies may reshape global food systems for years to come.

The IGC’s latest projections suggest a 3% increase in global grain production in 2025/26, driven by yield recovery in key exporters. With wheat and maize output forecast at record highs and moderate growth in global trade volumes, the new season may offer improved market balance despite persistent risks from regional weather patterns and shifting demand centers.

As the U.S. reinstates tariffs on key trading partners, the global grain market is facing unprecedented disruptions. With escalating trade tensions and retaliatory measures from Canada, China, and Mexico, the U.S.'s once-dominant position in global grain exports is now under threat.

Global grain trade is set to shrink to its lowest level in five years, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief released on April 4, 2025.

With shifting trade policies, supply chain disruptions, and evolving market dynamics, the IGC Grains Conference 2025 is set to be a critical gathering for industry leaders navigating the challenges ahead.

The use of biotechnology in flour production is an innovative solution for the traditional flour milling industry.