Arnaud Petit
Executive Director
International Grains Council (IGC)
The IGC’s latest projections suggest a 3% increase in global grain production in 2025/26, driven by yield recovery in key exporters. With wheat and maize output forecast at record highs and moderate growth in global trade volumes, the new season may offer improved market balance despite persistent risks from regional weather patterns and shifting demand centers.
The new release of IGC’s forecast of Grains for global Supply and Demand shows an improvement across the commodities. The next edition of the IGC Conference 25, to be held on the 10th and 11th June 2025 at London will discuss the way to turn these figures in concrete. For the full programme and registration details, please visit: https://www.igc.int/en/conference/programme.aspx
Despite reduced acreage, 2024/25 world grains production is seen essentially unchanged year on year balanced by better yield/, at 2,310m t. Global demand is forecast modestly higher than the season before, boosted mainly by rising industrial uptake in Brazil. Including drawdowns in maize, wheat and barley stocks, grain inventories are pegged 4% down year on yer. China has retreated from the world market this season, contributing to a 6% drop in global trade, to 418m t.
WHEAT PRODUCTION SET TO REACH ALL-TIME HIGH
The new IGC’s projection for world grains production is revisited higher and expand by 3% in 2025/26, to 2,375m t, a fresh peak. Boosted primarily by an anticipated recovery in Europe, the global wheat outturn is forecast to increase by 1% in 2025/26. At 806m t, production could be the largest ever, including sizeable crops in Argentina, Canada, India, and the EU. Although dry weather has curtailed prospects in China, Iran and Turkey, outlooks have improved in the US, Argentina, Russia and parts of the EU (Spain, Romania).
Graph : Wheat World Supply and Demand
MAIZE OUTPUT PROJECTED 4% HIGHER IN 2025/26
For maize, the next global outturn is forecast to be the largest ever, placed 4% higher year on year, at 1,277m t. The new projection is increased by 3m t with upgraded outlooks for Brazil, Uruguay, the EU and Zambia. But much of the immediate market focus remains centred on prospects for the next US crop. Plantings reached 78% complete as at 19 May, ahead of last year (67%) and the recent average (73%). Fieldwork progressed most quickly in western parts of the Corn Belt, while operations further east and south were hindered at times by excessive moisture in some areas. On the basis of near-trend yields and, assuming larger planting intentions are fulfilled, forecast production is maintained at a record 397.4m t (+5%).
Graph: Maize World supply and Demand
The Increases in feed, industrial and food uses of total grains are forecast to boost global uptake to 2,372m t, up by 2% y/y. After three successive drawdowns, carryovers may recover to 585m t (581m), including 146m (131m) in the major exporters. Tied mainly to increased wheat shipments, total trade could reach 428m t, up by 2% from the previous season's unusually small total.
SOUTH AMERICAN CROPS DRIVE SOYBEAN SUPPLY GROWTH
The marketing year 24/25 is characterize with heavy supplies, the world soyabean uptake and inventories are forecast at respective peaks, with trade also seen edging up to 181m t (+1%). Boosted by larger South American crops, the 2025/26 global output is tentatively predicted at a peak (+2%), with firmer demand for soya products across feed, food and industrial sectors set to underpin record processing. While shipments to China are seen little-changed year on year, larger deliveries to other destinations in Asia, as well as to Africa, should support expanded trade (+1%) for 25/26.
Graph:Soybean World Supply and Demand
GLOBAL RICE PRODUCTION SET TO HIT NEW PEAK IN 2025/26
After the prior season’s solid year on years increase (+14m t), global rice production is seen expanding further in 2025/26, to a fresh peak, including gains in China and the major exporters. With total consumption set to advance on expanded food demand, aggregate stocks are predicted to edge up (+1m), including major exporters’ reserves well above 50m t. Trade in 2026 is seen rising by 2% y/y, bolstered by the import requirements of buyers in Africa and Asia.
Graph: Rice World Supply and Demand
PULSE TRADE FORECAST TO CONTRACT 7% IN 2025
In the Council’s first projections, world chickpeas output is seen contracting in 2025/26, while total use is predicted to rise across the forecast period. With the next trade year around seven months away, prospects for shipment flows in 2026 are especially tentative; at 2.9m t (-3%), volumes are set to stay above average. Separately, total trade in all pulses in 2025 is forecast to contract by 7% year on year, chiefly on reduced flows of dry peas and lentils.
Graph: Pulses World Supply and Demand
*Note: The IGC Monthly Grains Market Report is now accessible in Arabic