Cereal supply conditions across
sub-Saharan Africa remain uneven. While production has improved in several key
countries, import dependence remains substantial, especially for wheat and
rice. FAO points to large external buying needs in major markets such as
Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, underlining the region’s continued exposure to
international grain prices, freight costs and currency pressures.
FAO’s latest Cereal supply and demand balances for sub-Saharan African countries provides country-by-country estimates for wheat, rice and coarse grains across 53 markets in West, Central, East and Southern Africa, based on the situation as of February 2026. The balance sheets define cereals as wheat, rice and coarse grains, with non-food use including feed, seed, industrial use and post-harvest losses.
Among the region’s largest markets, Nigeria remains one of the biggest cereal importers. For the 2026 marketing year, FAO projects Nigeria’s cereal import requirement at about 8.5 million tonnes, including 5.5 million tonnes of wheat and 3.0 million tonnes of rice. Domestic cereal production is estimated at 25.3 million tonnes, slightly below the recent five-year average for total cereals, meaning the country remains structurally dependent on imports to meet food demand. Ethiopia, by contrast, shows a firmer domestic supply position. FAO estimates Ethiopia’s 2025 cereal production at 30.2 million tonnes, with 2026 import needs limited to 1.5 million tonnes, down from the recent average. Kenya is expected to require about 3.86 million tonnes of cereal imports in the 2025/26 marketing year, including 1.75 million tonnes of wheat, 735,000 tonnes of rice and 1.375 million tonnes of coarse grains. South Africa, despite a strong rebound in coarse grain production, is still projected to import about 3.08 million tonnes of cereals, mostly wheat and rice.
IMPORT NEEDS PERSIST
The country figures also show that supply pressure is not uniform across the continent. In West Africa, several countries posted production levels above their recent averages, yet rice and wheat import needs remain notable. Côte d’Ivoire, for example, is projected to import about 2.62 million tonnes of cereals in 2026, including 2.0 million tonnes of rice and 615,000 tonnes of wheat. Ghana’s import requirement is placed at roughly 1.91 million tonnes, with rice and wheat accounting for the bulk. Burkina Faso, while relatively strong in coarse grain output, is still expected to import 1.24 million tonnes of cereals. This pattern suggests that improved local harvests are easing pressure in staple coarse grains in some markets, but not eliminating dependence on imported milling wheat and milled rice.
Local crop performance is improving in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, but flour and rice markets remain closely tied to the global trade environment. Wheat deficits in large consuming countries such as Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa and Côte d’Ivoire mean millers will continue to face exposure to Black Sea, EU and other export-origin pricing, as well as to freight volatility and exchange-rate movements. Even where coarse grain harvests are favorable, that does not automatically ease pressure on wheat flour markets, because consumption patterns and processing infrastructure still support sizeable wheat imports. Rice dependence in several coastal and urbanizing economies adds a second layer of exposure.
From a market perspective, this keeps several risks in play. First, import-heavy cereal balances leave governments and private buyers vulnerable to sudden changes in world wheat and rice prices. Second, weak or volatile local currencies can quickly inflate landed costs, even when global benchmarks are stable. Third, stock management becomes increasingly important in countries where domestic availability is adequate for coarse grains but insufficient for wheat or rice. In countries with rising coarse grain output, there may also be renewed discussion around substitution, feed use and local grain utilization, but such shifts tend to be gradual rather than immediate.