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SovEcon has lowered its 2026 crop estimates for Ukraine, citing rising risks to fertilizer and fuel supplies, while leaving next-season export projections largely unchanged thanks to high carry-out stocks.

Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are raising risks for grain and food importers across the Gulf by driving up energy, freight and insurance costs and tightening pressure on agricultural supply chains, according to Dr. Sadar Abdul Rasheed, Risk Governance & Industrial Hedging Specialist.

Rising freight risks, tightening fertilizer markets and uncertainty around Middle East shipping routes could push global grain prices higher, even as many traders still frame the Hormuz crisis as a demand-negative shock, Andrey Sizov, managing director of Black Sea grain consultancy SovEcon, told Miller Magazine.

International Grains Council (IGC) Senior Economist Alexander Karavaytsev told delegates at the TUSAF Congress that world grain output is set to post a third consecutive record, with a 130 million tonne year-on-year increase—the largest in 12 years—pushing the market back into surplus and lifting global stocks to their highest level in six years.

Dmitri Rylko, Director of Moscow-based IKAR, told TUSAF delegates in Antalya that a surging ruble, rising logistics costs and an unusual quality mix are slowing Russia’s wheat export pace—so far reaching only 62% of its export potential.

Black Sea wheat values have entered 2026 on low footing, with ample global supply and fierce exporter competition keeping rallies short lived and the market trapped in a narrow range.

Global grain markets enter February 2026 in a condition that appears deceptively calm. Production is ample, inventories are rebuilt, and prices have drifted into narrow ranges that suggest equilibrium.

The 2025/26 wheat season has opened in clear surplus mode, with global production projected at 837.8 MMT (+37 MMT y/y) and ending stocks rising to 274.9 MMT, keeping buyers comfortable and rallies hard to sustain.

Russia’s wheat production is expected to edge lower in the 2026-27 marketing year (July–June) as farmers shift acreage and investment toward higher-margin oilseeds, potentially tightening global supply even as Black Sea exports remain heavy, according to an S&P Global Energy analysis.

Record wheat crops, rising exporter stocks and a fading China import boom mean that the world is not short of grain, but millers cannot afford to be complacent. At IAOM MEA in Jeddah, analysts showed how the real battleground has shifted to protein, logistics, origin flexibility and farmer behaviour, as the Black Sea, the Americas and the Southern Hemisphere fight for a roughly fixed slice of global demand.

Russian farmers are selling grain and oilseeds at an unprecedented pace, a sign of mounting financial stress that could continue to pressure both domestic and global markets, according to Black Sea consultancy SovEcon.

Speaking at Grain Academy 2025 in Varna, a key regional forum for the Black Sea and Balkans grain trade, Malak Al Akiely of Golden Wheat for Grain Trading explained how government tenders that move futures, larger strategic reserves, sovereign fund investments and emerging digital grain hubs are turning the region into a price maker in global wheat and coarse grains.