Record wheat crops, rising exporter stocks and a fading China import boom mean that the world is not short of grain, but millers cannot afford to be complacent. At IAOM MEA in Jeddah, analysts showed how the real battleground has shifted to protein, logistics, origin flexibility and farmer behaviour, as the Black Sea, the Americas and the Southern Hemisphere fight for a roughly fixed slice of global demand.
At this year’s IAOM MEA conference in Jeddah, the Market Outlooks Session brought together leading analysts to explain how the changing wheat landscape looks from the perspective of each major exporting region.
Opening the session, Dan Basse, President & Founder of AgResource, stressed that “Mother Nature has been kind.” AgResource estimates 2025 world wheat yields at a record 3.76 t/ha, the highest ever recorded, even without a major expansion in harvested area. With normal weather, the firm projects that the 2026 world wheat crop will be about 2 MMT larger again, pushing global supplies to fresh highs.
Equally important, Basse’s charts showed major wheat exporter end stocks climbing to historically high levels by 2025/26, with the exporter stock-to-use ratio moving back into the low-20s percent. “If we have normal weather, exporter stocks rise to record levels over the next two seasons, and the stock-to-use ratio for this group moves back into the low-20s percent – that’s one of the most comfortable exporter positions we’ve seen in decades,” he told delegates.
“It’s not only wheat,” he added. AgResource projected combined corn production for the three largest exporters – the U.S., Brazil and Argentina – rising from about 564 MMT in 2023/24 to 610 MMT in 2024/25 and 616 MMT in 2025/26, setting a fresh record for exporter corn supplies.
Yet demand is not matching this growth. While global wheat exports are plateauing at high levels, incremental growth has largely stalled. For 2026, AgResource expects total global wheat feeding to hold flat, but feed wheat imports to drop by about 2.2 MMT – an 8.9% decline – as cheaper maize and sorghum displace wheat in many rations.
With record yields, rising exporter stocks and only modest demand growth, Basse’s baseline is a period of relatively low world wheat prices. At the same time, he underlined that this is not a risk-free environment. Two potential shock points stand out for him:
• Weather – a major drought or crop failure in one or more key producing regions could quickly eat into the projected stock build-up.
• Geopolitics – especially around the Black Sea. Basse warned of possible “dislocation due to geopolitical aspects”, including threats by President Vladimir Putin to target Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odessa or to disrupt key ocean shipping channels.
FRANCE: QUALITY COMEBACK AFTER A DIFFICULT YEAR
Turning to individual origins, Roland Guiragossian, Algeria & Middle East Manager at Intercéréales, explained how France has rebuilt its position after a challenging 2023 harvest. French soft wheat production for 2024/25 is estimated at around 35.3 MMT, close to the long-term average, with average yields of 7.4 t/ha and some regions exceeding 10 t/ha. More than 90% of French wheat area is planted with milling varieties, ensuring a strong quality base.
France has already shipped substantial volumes to Morocco, Egypt and West Africa. For millers, Guiragossian said, the 2024/25 French crop offers a rare combination: near-normal volume, uniformly high quality and a fully private, tax-free export regime.
UNITED STATES: LOWER AREA, RECORD YIELDS, BIGGEST EXPORTER STOCKS
From the United States, Ian Flagg, Regional Vice President at U.S. Wheat Associates, described a sector in which area is under pressure but yields and technology are pushing supply higher. Flagg noted that U.S. wheat area has declined slightly and now sits about 5% below its 10-year average. Crop rotations remain stable, input prices are still “sticky”, and net returns lag competing crops such as corn and soybeans. At the same time, he highlighted a promising technology pipeline – hybrid wheat, gene editing and Bioceres HB4 traits – but cautioned that wide adoption is still years away.
Despite lower area, record national average yields have offset the decline in plantings. Flagg showed that U.S. wheat production is around 54 MMT – similar to last year but 10% above the five-year average. Total U.S. wheat supply is at a five-year high, reflecting strong beginning stocks plus the current crop.
On the trade side, the U.S. picture is more dynamic than in recent seasons:
- Physical shipments are ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s export forecast and roughly 12% above the 10-year average through November.
- Competitive early-season HRW prices pushed sales into non-traditional destinations, doubling the sales pace of the previous season.
- Sub-Saharan Africa is the primary driver of this season’s U.S. export increase, with year-to-date shipments to the region around 1.5 MMT – exceeding the previous three marketing years.
- U.S. exporters have also seen an increased sales pace to Latin America and record sales to Bangladesh.
USDA currently projects total U.S. wheat exports at 24.5 MMT, potentially the highest since 2020/21. U.S. ending stocks are climbing and now surpass those of other major exporters, underscoring the country’s role as the largest single holder of exportable wheat stocks.
Flagg distilled the U.S. outlook into a few key points:
- Strong yields offset lower planted area – production is flat, but total supply is at a five-year high.
- Exports enjoyed strong early demand, but are now entering a seasonal slowdown, with competition likely to limit U.S. presence in some non-traditional destinations; late-season demand could pick up if quality issues emerge elsewhere.
- Quality is excellent across U.S. wheat classes, though there are spot issues in SRW and durum.
- Winter wheat plantings for the next crop are expected to be flat to slightly lower, with generally favourable conditions but some reduction in double-cropped area due to a late fall harvest; government policy incentives are also in play.
- A pending legal ruling on U.S. tariff authority could generate additional uncertainty for exporters and futures markets.
AUSTRALIA: BIGGER CROPS, BIGGER EXPORT CAPACITY, LOWER PROTEIN
From Australia, William Reid, Head of Wheat Trading at CBH Group, reported a very large wheat crop and strong export capacity but a clear slide in protein. For 2025/26, Australian wheat production is forecast at around 36 MMT, about 28% above the 10-year average and close to the second-largest crop on record. Western Australia alone is seen at 13.1 MMT, roughly 40% above trend, with national yields generally surprising to the upside despite poor seasons in parts of South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales. To handle this new scale, CBH is rolling out a A$4 billion, 10-year plan to lift peak export capacity from roughly 2 to 3 MMT per month.
The downside is quality: over the past decade Western Australia’s grade profile has shifted down the protein scale. Based on the first 30% of this year’s harvest, CBH expects only about 4% of WA wheat to make AH, roughly 26% to grade APW/AW, around 27% as ASW9, and nearly one third as low-protein/off-grade wheat, often below 9% protein or with high screenings.
Australia’s natural focus remains Asia and North Asia – especially Indonesia and the Philippines – but with this kind of exportable surplus, Reid said Australia is increasingly acting as a price-sensitive swing supplier into East Africa whenever South American or Black Sea supplies tighten.
BLACK SEA: BIGGER OUTPUT, INTENSE COMPETITION
The Black Sea segment, presented by Indrek Aigro of Copenhagen Merchants, showed how a huge crop can coexist with tight export logistics and rising competition. The region –Russia, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria – is on track for its third-largest wheat crop on record, with 2025/26 output expected to be 10–11 MMT higher year-on-year.
Aigro stressed that this story is not unique: production is up almost everywhere. The Black Sea therefore faces a world in which its own surplus is comfortable, but every other exporter is also well supplied.
On logistics, he reiterated that southern Russia – the core export surplus zone – is below its five-year average, forcing more grain to travel up to 1,500 km by rail or truck to ports such as Kavkaz and Novorossiysk. This has met:
- Ukrainian attacks on Russian rail infrastructure and Russian retaliation,
- Extra FSB vessel checks at the Kavkaz cluster, and
- Stormy “November” weather arriving already in September.
The result was a chaotic start to the export season, with early shipments well below last year. By October–November, however, export pace had caught up with 2023/24, and Black Sea exporters are now expected to run above last year’s monthly pace through the second half of the marketing year, with 23–26 MMT of wheat exports still to come from December to June.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
A key theme in Aigro’s presentation was the role of the Southern Hemisphere. He told that Australia and Argentina together are heading for record wheat production, generating an exportable surplus of around 44–45 MMT. This, he argued, “increases competition for the Black Sea in Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil and others.”
He showed how, whenever Australian and Argentine wheat crops are large, Black Sea exports to key markets such as Brazil, Bangladesh and Indonesia come under pressure. In parallel, trade data for the first five months of the season revealed a clear drop in Russian market share in several traditional destinations. Buyers in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia are actively testing alternatives in the EU, the Americas and the Southern Hemisphere, Aigro noted – raising a strategic question for Russia: will this loss of demand prove temporary, or become structural?
RUSSIA + UKRAINE: SHARE CAPPED BELOW ONE-THIRD
Looking at the longer-term trade picture, Aigro argued that the combined share of Russia and Ukraine in global wheat exports has already peaked and is likely to remain capped below one-third. In his view, their joint share will fluctuate in roughly the 25–30% range, constrained by:
- Stronger competition from France, Canada, the U.S., Australia and South America,
- Expanding output in the Southern Hemisphere, and
- Ongoing policy and logistics risks.
Aigro highlighted three key predictions to watch:
- The Russian export tax stays below 400 RUB/t and does not materially disrupt export flows.
- The Southern Hemisphere limits further Black Sea growth in several traditional Black Sea destinations.
- The combined Russian and Ukrainian share of global wheat exports stabilises below one-third, rather than resuming its previous upward trend.
RUSSIAN QUALITY: HETEROGENEOUS CROP, CONSISTENT 12.5% ANCHOR
From a quality perspective, Xavier Magi of ME Solaris, underlined that Russian wheat in 2024/25 is unusually heterogeneous. There are substantial volumes of very high-protein wheat (up to 15.5%) and significant amounts of feed wheat in the same catchments, especially in southern Russia, making segregation and blending challenging and complicating the assembly of consistent 11.5–12.5% milling parcels.
However, over the past decade, Russian exports from the main deep-sea terminals have become remarkably consistent in quality, and Magi argued that Russian 12.5% wheat has effectively become the global “standard blending wheat”.
ARGENTINA: VOLUME WITHOUT PROTEIN?
Argentina loomed large in the discussion. Its crop has been repeatedly revised upwards – from 24.5 MMT to around 26 MMT, with further upside possible – making it once again a heavyweight in global exports. But as harvest moves south, protein levels are falling, and a large share of the crop may come in around 10.5% protein, rather than the 11.5% many importers expect.
Aigro suggested that Argentina could end up selling a large part of its crop as feed wheat, especially into North Africa and parts of Latin America. If that happens, he expects the spread between 12.5% milling and feed wheat to widen, which would in turn expand the geography for Russian 12.5%, particularly in West Africa and the Middle East, while Australian high-protein wheat becomes a more attractive complementary origin.
For African buyers already seeing tenders switch from Russian to Argentine origin, Magi and Aigro stressed that the real constraint is protein. Argentina brings volume, but Russia and, increasingly, parts of Australia will be needed to bring grists back up to the desired strength.
CHINA: FROM DEMAND ENGINE TO BACKGROUND BUYER
In the Q&A, China was singled out as a key reason why global wheat demand has stopped growing. Dan Basse reminded delegates that just a few years ago China was importing 10 MMT of wheat in a typical year, and up to 13 MMT in peak seasons. Today, that figure has dropped to around 2–4 MMT, removing a major source of incremental demand from the world market. Asked whether China might “come back” as a big buyer, William Reid was cautious. He told the audience he does expect China to remain in the market, but only in a much smaller, more stable way: rather than returning to the 10–13 MMT levels seen in recent high-import years, he sees China settling into a baseline of roughly 4–5 MMT of imports per year, providing elastic demand for a limited volume of Australian, Canadian and U.S. wheat but no longer acting as the demand engine that can absorb global surpluses on its own.
FARMERS: MORE STORAGE, MORE POWER, THIN MARGINS
After discussing China’s demand, Basse turned back to the supply side with a simple question: “What is the farmer supposed to do in this environment?” From Australia, William Reid reported that growers are “probably the most undersold they’ve ever been” at this point in the season. High input costs, uncertain quality after harvest rains and low price satisfaction mean many farmers prefer to hold grain. With stronger balance sheets and substantial equity, they can sell gradually through the year instead of being forced into harvest sales.
In France, Roland Guiragossian said farmers are squeezed between weak prices, rising fertiliser costs and tightening environmental regulations.
Across Europe, Indrek Aigro pointed out, farmers have invested heavily in on-farm and cooperative storage. “Storage equals independence,” he said. That independence allows farmers to resist low prices and forces traders to treat farmer psychology as a genuine market factor. The old notion of automatic “harvest pressure” is eroding. In many exporting regions, the pressure is now on the trade to coax grain out of the bin, not on farmers to sell.
