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Black Sea consultancy SovEcon lowered its 2025/26 Ukraine wheat and corn export forecasts due to slow shipments, while projecting a sharp rebound next season on the back of unusually high carry-in stocks.

At EuroGrainExchange 2026 in Bucharest, the panel “Supply chain economics. Major challenges. Are we ‘lost in translation’?” underlined how grain trade is becoming harder to manage as low prices, rising costs, climate stress, fragile logistics and tighter execution margins collide across the supply chain.

Black Sea wheat and corn markets are entering the new season with an unusual pricing structure. Although Ukraine and Russia are expected to harvest sizeable crops and carry comfortable stocks into the new marketing year, new-crop prices remain close to old-crop levels.

USDA projects Türkiye’s 2026/27 wheat and barley crops to rebound sharply on the back of stronger autumn and winter rainfall, with wheat output rising to 19.8 million tonnes and barley to 7.0 million tonnes.

SovEcon has lowered its 2026 crop estimates for Ukraine, citing rising risks to fertilizer and fuel supplies, while leaving next-season export projections largely unchanged thanks to high carry-out stocks.

EuroGrainExchange returns to Bucharest for the fourth year in a row on 23–24 April 2026, bringing global grain and oilseed leaders together for two days of market debate and structured networking.

International Grains Council (IGC) Senior Economist Alexander Karavaytsev told delegates at the TUSAF Congress that world grain output is set to post a third consecutive record, with a 130 million tonne year-on-year increase—the largest in 12 years—pushing the market back into surplus and lifting global stocks to their highest level in six years.

Better yields in Siberia prompted SovEcon to raise its 2025 Russia wheat estimate by 0.2 MMT to 88.8 MMT and barley by 0.1 MMT to 19.4 MMT, with total grain production now seen at 136.2 MMT.

Russian farmers are selling grain and oilseeds at an unprecedented pace, a sign of mounting financial stress that could continue to pressure both domestic and global markets, according to Black Sea consultancy SovEcon.

SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has raised its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest to 87.2 million metric tons (MMT), up from 86.1 MMT in earlySeptember.

Grain producers, traders, and logistics experts at the BBS Grain 2025 Conference discussed the path forward for Black Sea grain trade amid growing market competition, logistical bottlenecks, and persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

The 22nd International Conference BLACK SEA GRAIN.EUROPE will take place on February 13-14, 2024, in Prague, bringing together key stakeholders from the Black Sea & Danube region, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and the Balkans.