The global agricultural value chain has crossed an irrevocable threshold, transitioning away from traditional cyclical corrections into an environment of permanent, structural volatility.
Global food commodity prices remained broadly stable in May, but cereal markets moved in the opposite direction as wheat, maize and rice quotations all increased, according to the latest data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
At HUBUDER’s Ankara conference, Türkiye’s grain, flour, pasta and bulgur sectors discussed the 2026 harvest outlook, with speakers pointing to stronger production prospects, high durum wheat stocks and a more comfortable supply picture.
As wheat quality becomes more variable and consumers demand healthier, safer and more functional products, flour millers are being pushed to move beyond volume alone. The future of flour will still be built on standard white flour, but growth and differentiation will increasingly come from consistency, functionality, nutrition, food safety, digital decision-making and customer-specific solutions.
The old order is fracturing. The Global South has a window. It may not stay open for long.
The next 25 years will not simply be a continuation of the last 25. The grains and oilseeds industry has been transformed by scale, consolidation, logistics and technology. The road to 2050, however, will be shaped by slower demand growth, shifting geography, continued yield gains, changing diets, energy uncertainty, digital disruption and a gradual rebalancing of power from the supply side to the demand side.
For the better part of twenty years, the rules of global grain trade were fairly simple: production shocks happened, prices reacted, and grain moved from where it was grown to where it was needed with a certain predictable rhythm.
Gustavo Idígoras, President of CIARA-CEC, says Argentina is entering a new phase in global grain and oilseed trade. As export taxes are gradually reduced, the country sees the potential to lift annual production from 160 million tonnes to 200 million tonnes, while strengthening wheat exports, diversifying markets and using traceability platforms to respond to EUDR and other sustainability requirements.
Sudhakar Tomar, President of the India Middle East Agri Alliance (IMEAA) Ecosystem, says the Middle East conflict and pressure on the Strait of Hormuz have exposed deeper vulnerabilities in global food and fertilizer supply chains, raising risks for grain, pulses and feed markets from the Gulf to South Asia and Africa.
In this exclusive interview with Miller Magazine, Peter Lloyd, Regional Technical Director at U.S. Wheat Associates, reflects on nearly five decades in flour milling, sharing the lessons, values, and practical insights he has gathered across generations of industry change.
While the immediate impact on wheat prices remains relatively limited, the Hormuz crisis is pushing up freight, fuel, insurance and fertilizer costs, adding a new layer of pressure to global trade. Benoît Fayaud of Expana warns that the bigger risk lies not in current wheat flows, but in shrinking farm margins, quality risks and weaker planting incentives that could weigh more heavily on the 2026/27 and especially 2027/28 wheat outlook.
After the exceptional margins of 2022 and 2023, the grain trade has entered a far more demanding cycle. The easy-money period created the illusion that direction alone was enough, but the past two seasons have shown otherwise.
Commodity markets run on information and competitive advantage hinges on access to data. But today’s problem is no longer access to information – it’s being able to find the vital clue amid an increasingly cluttered landscape. The real advantage lies in filtering the noise to find the signals that really move markets.
For fertilisers this year, the key word is no longer oil… it is gas. From the Strait of Hormuz to Brazil’s planting window, tightening supply, higher input costs and fragile energy flows may shape not only fertiliser markets, but also the outlook for grain production and food prices in 2026 and beyond.
In today’s market, price is no longer driven by supply and demand alone, but also by money flows, geopolitics, energy disruption and weather risk. While the Iran war has fueled stagflation fears and speculative buying across agricultural futures, global wheat, corn and soybean fundamentals remain broadly adequate.
Strong production prospects and large carry-over stocks will ensure comfortable supply in Romania and Bulgaria for the 2026/27 season, but the real test lies beyond production.
After a drought-hit 2025 crop, Türkiye is entering the 2026/27 season with wheat production expected to rebound to around 22.75–23.25 million tonnes and barley output also recovering strongly, supported by above-average rainfall and expanded winter crop area.
China is trying to secure staple grain supplies at home while meeting the rising needs of a feed-intensive animal protein economy.
As India enters the marketing year (MY) 2026/27 (April 2026 to March 2027), the wheat sector stands at a pivotal juncture, balancing robust production prospects with evolving trade policies and market dynamics.
In an exclusive interview with Miller Magazine, Samuel Schär, who took over as CEO of Bühler Group in January, shares his vision for the company and the global milling industry.
Based in Gaziantep and run by the third generation of the Tan family, Tanis Milling Technologies has grown into a global player, supplying turnkey flour, semolina, corn, pulses and feed plants to investors in more than 70 countries.
In an exclusive interview with Miller Magazine, Dario Grossmann, Head of Bühler’s Milling Academy in Uzwil, said milling training is moving beyond hands-on mechanics to encompass process understanding, data interpretation, traceability and automation.
Celebrating its 50th anniversary in Zaragoza, Spanish silo specialist SIMEZA has evolved from a local steel pioneer into a global storage partner for millers and grain handlers on five continents.
As the 2025/26 marketing year draws to a close, Ukraine’s grain sector finds itself in an unusual position. Despite ongoing war-related disruptions, the country has managed to maintain stable production and export flows. However, elevated carryover stocks, growing competition from Russia and the European Union, and increasingly selective buying behavior in key destination markets are putting unprecedented pressure on margins across the supply chain. For traders, the question is no longer how to move grain out of Ukraine, but how to remain profitable in a market where buyers increasingly dictate prices.
Speaking at the HUBUDER Conference in Ankara, organized by the Turkish Grain Suppliers Association, AgResource President Dan Basse said global grain markets are entering a transitional phase in which adequate near-term supplies are masking deeper risks for 2027 and beyond.
The Ukrainian barley market this season leaves very little space for debate — it points to one clear conclusion: this is the weakest season in almost twenty years.
Speaking at EuroGrainExchange in Bucharest, Peter Clubb, Market Analyst at the International Grains Council (IGC), said global grain markets are entering the new season with comfortable supplies and relatively low prices following record crops in 2025/26.
At IDMA Istanbul, the industry witnessed the debut of two initiatives by Parantez Media:
Simultaneously organized with IDMA Istanbul, the fifth edition of TABADER’s now customary Doyens Award Ceremony took place on May 2nd at Wow Hotel.
The global grain processing industry convened in Istanbul. The domestic sector, specializing in flour, grain, feed, pulses production equipment, and milling machinery, crucially exporting 90 percent of its output, gathered with over 10,000 professionals from 120 countries at the 10th IDMA Istanbul.
In an exclusive interview during the IDMA Expo in Istanbul, Moulay Abdelkadir Alalaoui, President of the Moroccan Flour Milling Federation (FNM), provides a comprehensive overview of the state of flour milling in Morocco and its relationship with Turkey.
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29 September 2023 10 min reading
ARTICLE
It can be said that the challenges in the Black Sea grain trade have reached their peak.