SovEcon cut its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 45.4 MMT amid fading price competitiveness versus EU origins, while raising its outlook for barley (4.3 MMT) and corn (3.4 MMT) exports. Citing a strong ruble, narrowing Black Sea price differentials, and only moderate import demand, the consultancy now sees limited upside for FOB quotations, with 12.5% wheat more likely peaking at $235–245/mt by season-end.

SovEcon, a leading consultancy specializing in Black Sea grain markets, has lowered its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast by 0.3 million metric tons (MMT) to 45.4 MMT, citing weaker competitiveness of Russian wheat relative to EU supplies.

Barley exports are now projected at 4.3 MMT, up 0.2 MMT from the previous estimate, while corn exports were raised by 0.2 MMT to 3.4 MMT. Total grain exports are seen at 55.1 MMT, 0.1 MMT above the January forecast. 

At the same time, SovEcon raised its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast by 2.1 MMT to 41.7 MMT.

The downgrade to the current-season wheat outlook reflects narrowing price differentials. Romanian and Russian 12.5% wheat are currently trading at roughly similar levels, whereas for most of the season Russian wheat was offered at a several-dollar discount. A strong ruble continues to pressure exporter margins, with the USD/RUB rate hovering near multi-year lows amid tight monetary policy.

Despite a recent rally in Chicago wheat futures, importer demand remains relatively moderate. With generally favorable crop prospects in the Northern Hemisphere and no major disruptions in the Black Sea region, SovEcon does not expect a significant increase in export quotations through the end of the season.

The consultancy now sees Black Sea 12.5% wheat FOB prices more likely peaking at $235–245/mt, compared with a previous expectation of $240–250/mt. It sees no meaningful support for ruble-denominated wheat prices, particularly outside southern regions.

Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon, said: “Russian wheat has largely lost its traditional price advantage over EU origins, and that is limiting export momentum. Without serious weather disruptions or new geopolitical shocks, we see little scope for a sustained price rally before the season ends.”