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Black Sea wheat prices experienced their most significant average monthly increase in February since last August, as severe weather conditions and logistical bottlenecks at key ports tightened near-term supplies.

SovEcon cut its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 45.4 MMT amid fading price competitiveness versus EU origins, while raising its outlook for barley (4.3 MMT) and corn (3.4 MMT) exports.

SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 0.4 million metric tons (MMT) to 44.6 MMT, citing a strong shipment pace and improving export margins.

Better yields in Siberia prompted SovEcon to raise its 2025 Russia wheat estimate by 0.2 MMT to 88.8 MMT and barley by 0.1 MMT to 19.4 MMT, with total grain production now seen at 136.2 MMT.

Russia’s wheat production is expected to edge lower in the 2026-27 marketing year (July–June) as farmers shift acreage and investment toward higher-margin oilseeds, potentially tightening global supply even as Black Sea exports remain heavy, according to an S&P Global Energy analysis.

SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has raised its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest to 87.8 million metric tons (MMT), up from 87.2 MMT. The revision reflects record yields in Siberia.

SovEcon has raised its 2025 Russian wheat crop forecast by 1.9 million tonnes to 85.2 million tonnes, driven by larger planted areas and improving yields in the Central and Southern regions.