Kateryna Mudriian
Chief Analyst at ASAP Agri

Inna Stepanenko
Chief Analyst at ASAP Agri

Corn powers Saudi Arabia’s feed complex — and Argentina is firmly in the driver’s seat. As demand expands and domestic production stays negligible, Argentina dominates the Kingdom’s import flows, leaving Brazil, the U.S., and Ukraine to compete for whatever space is left. This analysis unpacks the outlook for 2025/26 and show why Argentina’s advantage isn’t cyclical but structural — and what room, if any, remains for alternative suppliers.

Corn: Engine of Saudi Arabia’s feed grain machine

Corn remains the backbone of Saudi Arabia’s feed grain system, consistently taking the largest share of total grain and feed use, well ahead of wheat, barley, and sorghum. Its dominance is rooted in the poultry sector, where rations typically contain around 60% corn, making it the main energy source for broiler and breeder operations. Dairy farms and commercial feed mills also depend heavily on corn, reinforcing its central role across the Kingdom’s livestock economy.

Although wheat and barley can temporarily replace corn during high-price periods, these adjustments are short-lived and have not altered the long-term trend: Saudi corn consumption continues to rise.

USDA data show that total grain use usually ranges between 12–14 MMT, while corn’s share has steadily increased — from roughly 30% in 2020/21 to 35–37% in 2024/25–2025/26. Domestic corn consumption reached about 4.4 MMT in 2023/24, edged higher in 2024/25, and is expected to approach 4.6–4.7 MMT in 2025/26, driven primarily by expanding poultry production.

Domestic output remains negligible at roughly 135 KMT, as water-intensive crop restrictions limit cultivation. This leaves Saudi Arabia almost entirely dependent on imports.

Import demand swings tend to mirror global price cycles. When CFR corn prices surged to about 340 USD/MT in 2022/23, feed mills reduced corn inclusion and substituted up to 40% of their needs with wheat bran, soy hulls, and alfalfa. But once prices eased, corn quickly regained its dominant position: imports reached a record ~5 MMT in 2023/24, supported by cheaper global values and rapid poultry expansion.

Overall, Saudi Arabia’s corn import trajectory aligns closely with the growth of its feed industry. Imports increased from 3 MMT in 2020/21 to 4.1 MMT in 2021/22, then briefly retreated to 3.3 MMT in 2022/23 when global prices spiked. As soon as values normalized, buying returned aggressively — imports surged to a record 4.99 MMT in 2023/24, the highest volume ever delivered to Saudi ports.

The slight decline to 4.36 MMT in 2024/25 was not a sign of weakening demand but rather the result of large carry-in stocks, which allowed buyers to slow purchases without affecting feed supply.

With poultry production still expanding and importers consistently monitoring the global market for pricing opportunities, imports are projected to rise again in 2025/26 — reaching 4.5–4.7 MMT.

ARGENTINA TIGHTENS ITS GRIP ON SAUDI ARABIA’S CORN SUPPLY CHAIN

Saudi Arabia’s corn import market remains firmly dominated by South American suppliers, with seasonal shares shifting mainly according to export availability and price competitiveness. In 2024/25 (October–August), Argentina significantly expanded its footprint, supplying 61% of Saudi Arabia’s corn imports — nearly 2.3 MMT, up from 38% (1.4 MMT) in the previous full season. Brazil, meanwhile, saw its share drop to 23% (0.9 MMT) from 48% (1.7 MMT).

Daria Chestina
Head of LatAm office at
Atria Brokers

According to Daria Chestina, Head of LatAm office at Atria Brokers, Argentina’s expansion is anything but accidental — it reflects structural advantages that have strengthened over consecutive seasons. “Argentina’s dominance in 2024/25 is the product of three converging factors,” Chestina explains. “First, Argentina has been consistently competitive during Saudi buying windows. In a market where landed cost drives decisions, Argentine corn frequently arrives cheaper than Brazilian or U.S. origin, giving feed buyers a clear financial incentive.”

Quality is the second pillar. As Chestina notes, Saudi feed mills prioritize grain with predictable moisture, high test weight, low foreign material, and a bright color profile — features that help maintain stable energy levels in poultry diets. Argentinian corn reliably meets these specifications, a key advantage for a country targeting self-sufficiency in chicken meat.

The third advantage is logistical flexibility. “Argentina can load corn and soybean meal on the same vessel,” Chestina notes. “For Saudi buyers, this ‘combo option’ reduces freight cost per ton, simplifies execution, and improves scheduling for large integrated feed groups. Very few origins can offer this model consistently — it’s a structural edge.”

Chestina believes the trade relationship between the two countries will continue to deepen. “Unless there is a major shift in global price dynamics, Argentina will remain Saudi Arabia’s primary corn supplier into 2025/26 and beyond.”

The U.S. remains a steady but secondary origin. U.S. shipments increased to 519 KMT in 2024/25 — up from 357 KMT — lifting its market share from 10% to 14%. Still, the higher breakage levels in U.S. corn remain a constraint compared with South American grades.

Ukraine’s presence in the Saudi market remains marginal. Imports reached only 56 KMT in 2024/25 (about 1% of total volumes), slightly below 57 KMT in 2023/24 (2% share). High FOB prices relative to South American origins remain the key barrier to expanding this foothold.

Looking ahead to 2025/26, South American corn, particularly Argentinian grain, is set to retain its dominant position in the Saudi market, with the U.S. likely to become the second-largest supplier. Abundant export availability, sharp price competitiveness, and long-established trade relationships will continue to anchor this structure.

Ukraine may hold onto its small foothold, but with Ukrainian origin currently priced above competing suppliers, greater price competitiveness will be essential to maintain — let alone expand — its presence.

Ibrahim Alibrahim
CEO of Feedco

Ibrahim Alibrahim, CEO of Feedco, commented the success of South American corn on Saudi Arabia market next way: “Imported corn quality differs by crop and origin, shaped by factors such as field moisture, fertilization practices, and harvesting and drying methods. Corn from Argentina and Brazil is generally viewed as the most consistently reliable, showing lower toxin levels, reduced grain damage, and minimal screenings, making it the preferred option”. 

As for ASAP Agri’s question, how it is possible to increase the volume of Ukrainian corn export to Saudi Arabia, he added next: “Ukrainian corn offers a logistics advantage due to shorter transit times to the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf. For this origin to strengthen its competitiveness in the Saudi market, logistical and shipping risks would need to be reduced, pricing would need to provide an adequate spread over competing origins, and quality — particularly toxin levels — would need to remain consistently controlled at lower levels”.

*In a market where one supplier sets the pace and others compete for what remains, understanding the nuance behind every shift matters. At ASAP Agri, we track these movements in real time — from origin competitiveness to policy signals and changing global flows. Subscribe to ASAP Premium Reports — your live analytics for every day.