Özkan Taşpınar
Chairman of the Board
National Grain Council
Grains form the backbone of Turkey’s agricultural production, standing out as an indispensable resource for both plant and animal production. Turkey’s grain production holds a significant share in the global grain trade, maintaining its world leadership, particularly in flour, pasta, and bulgur exports. With new subsidy models and production planning, the goal is to achieve self-sufficiency in the grain sector, while Turkey’s export strength is expected to further increase.
Field crops (wheat, barley, corn, rice, rye, oats, triticale), which cover approximately 70% of Turkey’s field crop cultivation area, form the backbone of our plant and animal production. As such, grains are considered a strategic product, becoming an important sector from cultivation to trade.
Turkey’s grain production in 2024 is estimated to decrease by 5.4% compared to the previous year, reaching approximately 39.9 million tons. The 2024 production estimates for certain grain types are around 20.5 million tons for wheat, 8 million tons for barley, and 8 million tons for corn.
Turkey ranks 17th in global grain production with a 1.3% share, while in the $281 billion global grain trade, it holds a 2.4% share with $6.6 billion in trade. In the 795 million-ton global wheat production, Turkey ranks 10th with 20 million tons, producing at a level that is self-sufficient.
The key advantages in production include proximity to the demanded raw materials and the ability to easily access both domestic and inter national markets. The grain-based manufacturing sector is generally concentrated in the Thrace, Southeastern Anatolia, and Central Anatolia regions.
Turkey is a prominent player in the world in exporting grain-based finished products, such as flour, pasta, bulgur, and biscuits. Among these export products, the flour and pasta sectors stand out the most. Turkey exports grain-based products equivalent to approximately 7.5-8 million tons of wheat annually to nearly every region of the world. It holds the first place in global wheat flour exports with a 22% share and ranks second in pasta exports with a 13% share. In biscuit exports, Turkey ranks 5th globally with approximately 200,000 tons, while it leads in bulgur exports with 255,000 tons.
Turkey meets the raw material needs of exported finished products through imports. The ability to source suitable raw materials contributes to increasing the potential for processing them into finished goods and exporting them. Importing raw materials under the inward processing regime and selling them as finished products falls under the general rule of trade. Viewing this practice as conventional importation and claiming “Turkey imports wheat” in every forum does not align with the rules and realities of trade for this product group, which has a foreign trade surplus in grains and grain-based products. As in previous years, Turkey had a foreign trade surplus in this field in 2023 as well, earning $4.6 billion in export revenue against $3.6 billion spent on imports. Thus, the grain and grain-based products trade clearly shows self-sufficiency with a foreign trade surplus. The imported raw materials processed domestically and exported with added value have a positive effect on the trade balance, as seen in the trade data, with a surplus favoring exports. This season, as part of measures taken by TMO, wheat imports were halted, and raw materials for export products were sourced domestically, which positively impacted the regulation of the domestic market.
WE MUST SAFEGUARD OUR FOOD SECURITY
The agricultural sector in Turkey has undergone significant structural transformations in the past 20 years. Policies that will shape the future of agriculture have been put into practice. In recent years, a new subsidy model associated with production planning, a plant production type contract, changes to the national registry of farmers (ÇKS) regulation, and the establishment of the National Water Board have allowed agricultural production, particularly in grains, to find a healthier foundation. The goal here is to keep grain production in balance with the country’s needs, as population growth, migrant influx, increasing tourist numbers, aid to our regions of interest, and the turmoil in our geography directly affect consumption. In the process that began with the Covid-19 pandemic, the demand for wheat-based products like pasta and bulgur has steadily increased. This situation supports the prediction that countries, such as ours, which export wheat products, will continue to hold an advantage.
For years, the lack of production planning has been raised in various forums, highlighting marketing issues and the inability to sell surplus products at their proper value, as well as problems with the supply and import of deficient products, which vary from year to year. These have long been cited as the main dilemmas of agricultural production. For the first time, on March 14, 2023, this issue was placed on a legal basis, followed by the publication of the “Regulation on Agricultural Production Planning.” Over the past year, intense technical work has been carried out both locally and centrally, and steps have been taken to ensure that the implementation is in harmony with society’s needs and that it is widely accepted. This long-term and comprehensive preparation and work have borne fruit, and with the publication of Presidential Decree No. 8859 on August 28, 2024, the implementation phase has begun. This process can be described as a ‘silent revolution’ for Turkish agriculture. Thus, with the new subsidy model and production planning in crop production, the tangible goals of protecting natural resources, especially water and soil, achieving self-sufficiency in strategic products, solving marketing problems, and increasing producer incomes have become within reach.
The new model associated with crop production planning presents a significant opportunity for our country’s agriculture, with the potential to evolve into a process that will grow and develop with the support of all stakeholders in the sector. The model aims to achieve self-sufficiency or production increases in some strategic products, and in others, it aims to reveal the potential for production for both self-sufficiency and export. It is understood that approximately 15 million hectares, or 75%, of our crop production area is included in the scope of production planning. For the first time, subsidy payments are announced before the production season and are expected to continue in three-year periods. Thus, it is anticipated that these subsidies will have a guiding effect and influence producers’ choices. The subsidies have been simplified, made more understandable, and easier to apply. Since the model is dynamic, it is understood that the subsidy coefficients will be updated according to current conditions, and other elements will remain open to development. The subsidies are field-based and will be paid in cash. The local determination of which products will be included in the planned product pattern in each basin, with the participation of all stakeholders in the sector, is considered important for the widespread acceptance of the system.
The subsidies are categorized as basic subsidy, planned production subsidy, water restriction subsidy, production development subsidy, rural development subsidy, and deficiency subsidy. The subsidies are generally linked to the subsidy coefficient value (244 TRY per decare), with the subsidy coefficient for each item. It is evaluated that all farmers registered in ÇKS will benefit from basic subsidy, which aims to cover 50% of fuel expenses and 25% of fertilizer expenses for the relevant product, and this is considered to be significantly higher than the existing subsidy. Planned production subsidy will be provided for 13 strategic products and 1 product group if these products are included in the planned product pattern for the relevant basins, and it is determined by adding an amount equal to the basic subsidy. It is seen that planned production subsidy, together with basic subsidy, aims to cover 100% of fuel expenses and 50% of fertilizer expenses for the relevant product, and this is deemed realistic. The model is unique in its goal of sustainability and protection of the environment, particularly soil and water resources. In 11 provinces and 52 districts with groundwater restrictions, additional incentives will be paid to farmers who choose the desired crops for the basin, provided they comply with rotation rules. Thus, it is understood that with the condition of planting the determined types of crops in these basins, all fuel and fertilizer costs can be covered.
Subsidy for certified seeds under the production development subsidy has been significantly increased. For the first time, subsidy will be provided for certified maize, sunflower, and cotton seeds that are bred and registered by universities and public research institutions, and additional subsidy will be provided for cotton seeds used within this scope. This is expected to contribute to the development of the local and national seed sector. However, it is necessary to include the local and national private seed sector within the scope of subsidy. Additionally, it is understood that subsidy for the use of solid organic and organomineral fertilizers, as well as biological and biotechnical control subsidies, and organic and good agricultural practices, will continue with increased support.
Setting the rental subsidy for products listed in licensed warehouses at a level that covers 75% of the tariff determined by the Ministry of Commerce will encourage the preservation of products until they reach their market value.
While the significant increase in agricultural extension and consultancy subsidy is important, doubling the consultancy quota provided through institutional structures is expected to strengthen the expectations that scientific findings and technologies will guide production.
It is considered significant that deficiency payments will be made when necessary for products that are in short supply and included in the planning scope, taking into account the costs in the production year and the prices in domestic and foreign markets. However, determining and announcing these payments before harvest for the relevant products is critical for the sustainability of the system.
Therefore, particularly in the face of declining wheat cultivation areas due to reduced profitability and farmers shifting to other crops, subsidy policies should aim to raise these areas back to 8 million hectares through production planning. We believe that if the new subsidy model, which is also linked to production planning, is developed in line with our recommendations, this target can be achieved.