At the 2026 IGC Grains Conference in London, speakers said ample wheat availability and large carryover stocks are changing buyer behaviour in global wheat trade. Importers are becoming more selective, while exporters face tighter margins, more specific performance requirements and growing pressure from freight, currency, climate and input-cost risks.

Global wheat markets are entering the 2026/27 season with one of the strongest total supply positions of the decade. This abundance is strengthening importers’ bargaining power, while geopolitical, logistics and input-cost risks continue to cloud the outlook.

These changing trade dynamics were discussed during the wheat session at the 2026 IGC Grains Conference in London, moderated by IGC Senior Economist Alexander Karavaytsev. The panel included Francisco Martin-Rayo, Co-Founder and CEO of Helios AI; Eren Günhan Ulusoy, Eurasia Regional Director of the International Association of Operative Millers; and Ishan Bhanu, Lead Agricultural Commodities Analyst at Kpler.

Speakers said buyers are increasingly relying on hand-to-mouth purchasing, diversified origins, flexible specifications and more performance-based procurement. Exporters, meanwhile, face tighter margins, stronger competition and rising pressure to offer reliability, technical consistency and origin flexibility.

SUPPLY IS AMPLE, BUT ACCESS MATTERS 

Ishan Bhanu said 2025 was an exceptional year for the global wheat market because none of the seven major wheat exporters suffered a major production problem. Strong crops in the Northern Hemisphere, a recovery in Europe, record output in Argentina and one of Australia’s strongest crops helped build significant wheat stocks.

The production picture for 2026 is more mixed. The United States is facing challenges in winter wheat, Europe is expected to ease from last year’s high level, Russia is currently seen broadly stable, and both Argentina and Australia are expected to harvest smaller crops than last year.

However, Bhanu emphasized that the market will not trade only the new crop. It will also trade the stocks accumulated in 2025. “When you look at total supply, we are in one of the best positions in this decade for the global wheat market,” he said.

Karavaytsev agreed that the market appears well supplied on paper and noted that IGC also sees the possibility of record supply this season. But he warned that the location of stocks matters. Some stocks, particularly in Russia, are located far from export channels, including Siberia, thousands of kilometers from southern export terminals. 

IMPORTERS ARE BUYING PERFORMANCE, NOT ONLY WHEAT

One of the key messages of the session came from Eren Günhan Ulusoy, who said wheat procurement is becoming more closely linked to end-use performance. He said flour millers now serve a much wider range of products, from around 10–15 varieties in the past to nearly 50 today, as customers require different flours for bread, pastries, pizza, doughnuts, frozen dough and other end uses. This places greater responsibility on millers. While international wheat contracts include basic specifications such as protein and falling number, customers increasingly demand deeper functional quality. In some cases, a wheat cargo may meet contract terms but still create processing problems if its performance does not match the miller’s needs. In Ulusoy’s view, a well-supplied market gives importers more leverage, while exporters can stand out through performance, flexibility and consistency.

TÜRKİYE’S DUAL ROLE IN FLOUR AND PASTA TRADE

Ulusoy said Türkiye occupies a unique position in the global wheat supply chain because it is both a major wheat importer and a leading exporter of wheat-based products. He placed Türkiye’s role in a broader global context, noting that world wheat flour production for food use stands at around 450 million tons, while only about 12.5 million tons is traded internationally. Türkiye remains the leading exporter in this relatively narrow global market, with latest exports at around 2.36 million tons, ahead of Kazakhstan at 1.93 million tons and Uzbekistan at 1.75 million tons, he said.

This picture shows that Türkiye’s leadership remains strong but is being challenged. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have strengthened their positions in recent years, while Türkiye’s flour exports have retreated from the 2023/24 peak of 3.9 million tons. The outlook for 2026/27 points to stabilization rather than a return to rapid growth.

Ulusoy also underlined Türkiye’s role in global pasta trade. He noted that Türkiye is the world’s second-largest pasta exporter after Italy, with exports of around 1.44 million tons, compared with Italy’s 2.62 million tons. Global pasta production stands at around 17.6 million tons, while international pasta trade is about 9 million tons. Türkiye’s pasta exports remain on a stronger growth path than flour, with the 2026/27 outlook pointing to stabilization after recent gains.

IMPORT BAN RISK EASES, BUT DOES NOT DISAPPEAR

Türkiye’s previous wheat import ban was one of the clearest examples discussed in the session of how importer policy can affect exporter markets, particularly in the Black Sea region. Ulusoy recalled that Türkiye’s wheat import ban in the 2024/25 season came as a surprise to the market. The impact on trade was significant. Türkiye’s wheat imports fell from 11.84 million tons to around 1.83 million tons. Ulusoy underlined that the loss of roughly 10 million tons of Turkish demand matters in a global wheat trade of about 200 million tons, especially for the Black Sea region, where Türkiye is one of the key buyers of Russian wheat.

With Türkiye again expecting a strong domestic crop in 2026/27, market speculation has returned over whether another import restriction could be considered. Ulusoy’s figures point to wheat production of 22.8 million tons in 2026/27, with harvested area at 7.2 million hectares and yield at 3.2 tons per hectare. However, Ulusoy said the stock situation is different from the previous season. At the start of 2024/25, Türkiye entered the season with wheat stocks of around 9 million tons. This season, wheat stocks are estimated at around 4.5 million tons, of which TMO holds about 3.5 million tons. This lower stock level, he said, reduces the probability of another import ban, but does not eliminate it entirely. As Ulusoy put it, a large crop “does not make it zero.” 

FERTILIZER AND CLIMATE RISKS ARE CREATING ASYMMETRY

Francisco Martin-Rayo said the global wheat market should not be treated as a single homogeneous market. Even with record supply, not all supply is equally available, and not all exporters face the same risk profile. He said fertilizer disruption and El Niño-related climate risk are affecting producers and importers asymmetrically. Some exporters are relatively insulated from fertilizer shocks, while others are more exposed. Some importing countries are also facing a combination of foreign exchange pressure, climate risk, higher credit costs and import dependence.

In his view, the market’s visible supply margin may be thinner than headline numbers suggest. If fertilizer flows remain disrupted, the impact could move from a price problem to an availability problem.

For procurement teams, Martin-Rayo said the implications are practical. Buyers sourcing from exposed origins should price in compounding risks, build optionality and shorten lead times. Buyers sourcing from more insulated origins should secure relationships before other importers rebalance. Import-exposed countries should diversify origins, hedge currency exposure where possible and prepare for domestic production risks.

He also warned that the world may be moving away from a single, globally integrated wheat market toward a more fragmented system where country relationships and supplier blocs become more important.

RED SEA DISRUPTION STRENGTHENS BLACK SEA FREIGHT ADVANTAGE

Logistics was another major topic. Bhanu said the Red Sea crisis remains ongoing, with Western vessels continuing to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Although the crisis has received less attention recently, its impact on grain freight remains important. According to Bhanu, the disruption has given Black Sea exporters a significant advantage. Russian and other Black Sea cargoes are generally not diverting around Africa to reach Asia and the Middle East. For them, the diversion would be much longer than for Western European exporters. Insurance dynamics also appear to favor Black Sea operators in some cases.

As a result, Black Sea exporters have gained freight competitiveness in Asian and Middle Eastern markets. Bhanu said higher supply, larger ending stocks and strong production prospects in the Black Sea could further strengthen this advantage.

On the Persian Gulf, he said the direct impact on grain trade has so far been limited. Saudi Arabia has shifted some tender demand toward west coast ports rather than Dammam, the UAE has diverted cargoes to Fujairah, and Iran has increased use of Chabahar port on the Arabian Sea. Grain flows have adjusted relatively well, although the crisis has had greater implications for fuel and fertilizer markets.

Karavaytsev added that vessel-tracking data can overstate actual deliveries. Some vessels may head toward the Persian Gulf but divert at the last moment if they cannot pass the Strait of Hormuz. He said the region normally receives around 2 million tons of grains and oilseeds per month, but the uncertainty is how many vessels will actually be able to pass.

TÜRKİYE BENEFITS FROM FUNCTIONING BLACK SEA FLOWS

Ulusoy said Türkiye does not feel insecure in the current environment, partly because of strong rainfall, expectations of a large domestic crop and functioning Black Sea logistics. Unlike the early stage of the Russia-Ukraine war, the current Middle East crisis has not produced an immediate wheat supply shock. Its effects are more indirect, through fertilizer, oil and freight.

He said Türkiye benefits from its Black Sea position, as freight increases affect it less than more distant importers. Although attacks on vessels and port infrastructure remain a concern, the logistics chain between Türkiye and Black Sea suppliers is still functioning.

Ulusoy also said land routes cannot replace sea transport at scale. At the beginning of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, some cargoes were diverted to İskenderun for possible onward transit to Iran through southern Türkiye, northern Syria or Iraq. But he noted that a Panamax vessel can discharge in a few days, while moving the same volume over 1,500 kilometers by land could take months.

AFRICA OFFERS GROWTH, BUT FLOUR TRADE WILL BECOME MORE SPECIALIZED

Africa’s role in future wheat and wheat-based product demand was also discussed. Ulusoy said the continent remains one of the strongest long-term growth markets because of population growth and rising consumption. However, the trade model is changing. Countries such as Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal, which previously imported flour, have invested in domestic milling capacity and are increasingly importing wheat instead. This trend is expected to continue.

Still, Ulusoy said flour exports will not disappear. Flour is becoming a more specialized product. Some markets may need smaller volumes of specific flour types, such as pizza flour or other end-use products, where importing high-protein wheat and producing locally may not be economical. In such cases, flour imports may remain more efficient.

He also pointed to a trend among Turkish flour millers to invest in pasta production. Pasta exports are still growing, while flour exports appear to have passed their peak. But the transition is not simple. Pasta plants require higher investment than flour mills, and the growth potential depends heavily on end-market demand, particularly in Africa.

INPUT COST-TO-PRICE RATIO SEEN AS A KEY RISK

At the end of the session, speakers were asked to identify the most important risks for the wheat market. Bhanu said the medium-term issue is the wheat market’s inability to organize itself globally. He argued that wheat lacks some of the market mechanisms seen in corn and soybeans, and this creates inefficiencies, especially in the Black Sea, where harvest pressure often reduces farmer returns.

Martin-Rayo identified climate as both the largest threat and the largest opportunity. More frequent climate disruptions are a growing risk, but artificial intelligence, real-time climate data and better forecasting tools can help procurement teams improve planning.

Ulusoy said the most important risk is the input cost-to-price ratio. The pressure on farmers, he said, is not only about input costs, but about how those costs compare with market prices. As a second risk, he pointed to geopolitics. Demand, by contrast, remains relatively solid and inelastic, even at high prices.