Speaking at the IAOM Eurasia Conference & Expo 2025, AgResource CEO Dan Basse painted a bearish picture for global grain markets. Record wheat yields, a massive U.S. corn harvest, and steady soybean output have created an environment of oversupply, while demand growth has stagnated. China’s retreat from the role of top importer and the declining U.S. share in world grain trade further weigh on prices. “For millers, this is a favorable environment; for farmers, it is painful,” Basse noted.

At the IAOM Eurasia Conference, Dan Basse, CEO of AgResource, delivered a keynote address that set the tone for the global crop discussion. His central message: the grain market is facing abundant supplies, stagnating demand, and bearish price prospects. While this creates opportunities for millers to secure inputs at competitive prices, it spells financial hardship for farmers worldwide. 

According to Basse, farmers across all regions — from Russia to South America — are struggling with rising input costs and falling profitability. “Farmers will keep planting,” he said, “but they are cutting back on fertilizers and holding onto equipment longer.” Despite these cost-saving measures, global production remains ample. Record wheat yields, a massive U.S. corn harvest, and steady soybean output have created a surplus that continues to weigh on prices.

TRADE FLOWS REALIGN AS CHINA STEPS BACK

One of the most striking shifts is China’s reduced role in global grain markets. Once the world’s largest importer, China’s purchases of wheat, corn, and soybeans peaked in 2022 at nearly 150 million tons combined. Since then, imports have declined sharply.

Basse warned that U.S. agricultural exports to China could fall to as little as $6–7 billion by 2026, down from $16 billion this year. Instead, China is sourcing more soybeans and corn from South America and scaling back wheat purchases, much of which now originate from the Black Sea. “China is no longer the demand driver it once was,” Basse emphasized. “We must prepare for a world where Chinese imports are no longer the growth engine for global grain.”

THE DECLINE OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL DOMINANCE

Basse highlighted a historic shift in trade dynamics. In the early 1980s, the United States accounted for more than half of global grain exports. Today, its share has fallen to around 17%.

Price discovery has shifted as well: wheat prices are now set in the Black Sea, while corn and soybeans are priced in South America. U.S. farmers, once the lowest-cost producers, are now among the highest-cost suppliers. This, Basse explained, is a key reason behind U.S. tariff policies under the Trump administration. Yet tariffs and non-tariff barriers are not only reshaping trade flows but also threatening to increase poverty in vulnerable regions such as North and East Africa.

OVERSUPPLY IN WHEAT AND CORN

Global wheat supplies have reached record highs, supported by yields of around 3.5 tons per hectare. Major exporters’ combined production and beginning stocks are also at record levels. However, per capita wheat consumption is declining, particularly in feed use, due to cheap corn availability. Although USDA projects a 10 million ton increase in global wheat trade, current export pace — especially from Russia and the EU — lags behind, suggesting demand is not keeping up.

Corn faces a similar pattern. The U.S. is harvesting a record 16.7 billion bushels, contributing to a global total of approximately 1.265 billion metric tons. Demand growth has stagnated, with the only bright spot being Brazil’s rapid build-up of ethanol capacity. “It is hard to be bullish on wheat or corn with such supplies and sluggish demand,” Basse said.

SHIFTING TRADE BLOCS

Looking ahead to 2035, Basse predicted the world will see two major trade hubs:

• Europe, North America, and Mexico forming one bloc.
• Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, China, and potentially Russia forming the other.

 Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia may lean toward the Western bloc, though uncertainty remains. Such realignment, he stressed, will have profound implications for millers, exporters, and policymakers.

THE BEARISH OUTLOOK: GOOD FOR MILLERS, BAD FOR FARMERS

The overarching theme of Basse’s presentation was the cyclical nature of commodities. Today’s abundance, he reminded, could be replaced by tomorrow’s shortages if weather or climate events disrupt supply. But for the immediate future, oversupply and weak demand dominate. “For millers, this is a favorable environment,” Basse concluded. “For farmers, it is painful.”

KEY FIGURES FROM DAN BASSE’S PRESENTATION

China’s Grain Imports

• Peaked in 2022 at ~149 million tons (corn, soybeans, wheat combined)
• Forecast for U.S. ag exports to China: $6–7 billion by 2026 (down from $16 billion in 2025)

U.S. Share in Global Grain Trade

• Early 1980s: 52%
• 2025: ~17% 

Global Wheat Supply

• Record yields: 3.5 t/ha
• Major exporters’ supply (production + stocks): up 15 MMT year-on-year

Poverty & Tariffs

• Average U.S. tariff level back to 17%, highest since the 1930s
• Basse warned: tariffs risk increasing poverty by reducing calorie access in vulnerable regions