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BLOG

Ukrainian Grain Match: Turkey scores in corn, Spain holds the wheat line

10 March 20257 min reading

Inna Stepanenko
Senior Grain Analyst
ASAP Agri

Ukraine’s grain export flows have undergone significant shifts this season, with Turkey emerging as a major buyer of Ukrainian corn, while Spain’s share has dropped significantly. At the same time, Spain continues to dominate in Ukrainian wheat exports, whereas Russian market control and import restrictions have largely squeezed Ukraine out of Turkey’s wheat sector. These changing trade patterns highlight both new opportunities and growing challenges for Ukrainian grain exporters in key global markets. This analysis, authored by Inna Stepanenko, Chief Grain Analyst at ASAP Agri, blends industry analytics with exclusive market insights to provide a comprehensive examination of these trends.

SHIFT IN UKRAINIAN CORN EXPORT FLOWS FROM SPAIN TO TURKEY

Christina Serebriakova
CEO of ASAP Agri
Broker at Atria Brokers

Ukraine’s corn exports totaled 9.6 MMT in October–January of the 2024/25 marketing year, down from 10.3 MMT in the same period last season. This decline is not just a result of the reduced export supply but also reflects a notable shift in the export structure. Besides the collapse of corn shipments to China, there has been a significant drop in corn exports to Spain and a resurgence of Turkish demand for Ukrainian corn.

Turkey imported nearly 1.9 MMT of Ukrainian corn in October–January 2024/25 MY, a dramatic increase from just 194 KMT a year earlier. This surge in Turkish demand, particularly during the first three months of the season, was primarily driven by an active corn import quota with a low customs duty (5%), which was fully utilized by early December 2024.

The market had anticipated an additional 1 MMT quota to be approved in January 2025, but the Turkish government has been slow to authorize it. Instead, TMO (Turkish Grain Board) is prioritizing the reduction of its large feed wheat stocks, delaying further corn import allocations, according to Salih Karagöz, Broker at Pir Grain & Pulses.

Despite the uncertainty over a new quota, Turkey continues to show strong demand for Ukrainian corn. Ukrainian prices remain competitive, even with Turkish importers now required to pay an import license fee of approximately 30 USD/MT. The cost of this license is calculated based on domestic Turkish corn prices, which are currently significantly higher than the price of imported Ukrainian corn.

As a result, Ukraine has considerably strengthened its position in the Turkish corn market, increasing its market share to 80% during the first three months of the 2024/25 MY (October–December), up from just 18% a year earlier. Meanwhile, Russia’s share has plummeted to 12%, compared to 72% last year. Given this shift, combined with Russia’s zero-export quota for corn from 15 February to 30 June 2025, Ukraine has a strong opportunity to expand its presence in Turkey’s corn market even further. For comparison, in the 2023/24 MY, Ukraine held a 51% share of the Turkish corn market, while Russia accounted for 42%.

At the same time, Ukrainian corn exports to Spain have halved, dropping from nearly 3 MMT in October–January 2023/24 MY to just 1.5 MMT in the same period this season.

“For the Spanish market, Ukraine has faced tougher competition this season, as U.S. corn was often priced $4–7/MT lower than Ukrainian corn between October 2024 and January 2025. Only at the end of January and early February did this price difference appear to narrow,” said Christina Serebriakova, CEO at ASAP Agri and Broker at Atria Brokers.

USDA data confirms this trend, showing that the U.S. shipped approximately 332 KMT of corn to Spain in October–December 2024/25 MY, compared to almost no shipments a year earlier. Despite this competition, Ukraine remains Spain’s primary corn supplier, holding a 45% market share in October–December 2024/25 MY, a slight increase from 44% in the previous year. Meanwhile, Brazil’s share dropped from 27% to 19%, while the U.S. took a 16% share in the first three months of the current season. “Since 26 February 2025, when Trump’s administration declared plans to implement 25% tariffs on imports from the European Union, EU buyers are reluctant to purchase U.S. corn, being afraid of the potential restrictions. Herewith, EU corn stocks remain high, further limiting demand”, said Christina Serebriakova.

SPAIN REMAINS THE LEADING IMPORTER OF UKRAINIAN WHEAT

Spain continues to be the largest buyer of Ukrainian wheat, although import volumes have declined this season. Ukraine shipped 2.6 MMT of wheat to Spain in July–January 2024/25 MY, down from 3.2 MMT in the same period last year. Spain accounted for 24% of Ukraine’s total wheat exports of 10.8 MMT during this period, compared with a 35% share in July–January 2023/24, when overall Ukrainian wheat exports stood at 9.2 MMT.

Despite lower volumes, Ukraine remains Spain’s top wheat supplier. In July–December 2024/25 MY, Ukraine’s share of Spain’s total wheat imports rose to 58%, up from 42% a year earlier, reducing reliance on other exporters such as France, Bulgaria, and Canada.

Turkey, in its turn, has imposed restrictive import policies that have significantly curbed Ukrainian wheat imports this season. Shipments to Turkey plummeted from 568.3 KMT in July-January 2023/24 to just 33.8 KMT in the same period of 2024/25. An import ban from 6 June to 3 October 2024, halted trade, and even after restrictions were lifted, a new quota system limited Ukraine’s access. Under the new rules, 75% of wheat imports must go through TMO, leaving only 25% available under the Inward Processing Regime. Alternatively, importers can fulfill their entire quota through TMO, making competition tougher for Ukrainian wheat.

Beyond these trade restrictions, Russian dominance in Turkey’s wheat market has further pressured Ukrainian exports. Russia’s lower prices and higher quality parameters have made it increasingly difficult for Ukrainian suppliers to compete. As a result, Ukraine’s market share in Turkey fell to just 2% in July-December 2024/25 MY, down from 12% a year earlier.

CHINA, MENA BOOST UKRAINIAN BARLEY IMPORTS AS SPAIN’S SHARE DECLINES

Ukraine’s barley exports have surged this season, but Spain’s share of Ukrainian imports has weakened. Ukraine exported 2 MMT of barley in July-January 2024/25 MY, up from 1.4 MMT a year earlier, but shipments to Spain dropped to 255 KMT from 391 KMT.Meanwhile, China increased its purchases to 708 KMT, nearly doubling last season’s volume of 371 KMT. Ukrainian barley exports to the Middle East and North Africa also climbed, with Libya, Jordan, Tunisia, and Algeria emerging as key buyers.

There was also a notable rise in Ukrainian barley exports to Turkey. Turkey, a barley exporter itself, imports only limited volumes. While still small, Turkish purchases of Ukrainian barley jumped to nearly 36 KMT in July-December 2024/25 MY, up sharply from just 3 KMT a year earlier. As a result, Ukraine has overtaken Russia to become Turkey’s top barley supplier this season.

So far in the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine has also become Spain’s leading barley supplier, accounting for 31% of imports in the July-December period — up from 13% a year earlier. Meanwhile, Romania’s share dropped to 17% from 30%, and Germany’s fell to 14% from 20%.

Daria Marchenko
Broker at Atria Brokers

Meanwhile, global barley demand has been strong in recent months, fueling an upward price trend. According to Daria Marchenko, a broker at Atria Brokers, securing Ukrainian barley has become increasingly difficult in February. “Covering demand is a daily challenge,” she noted, adding that with limited stocks, sellers holding 3 KMT to 5 KMT are unwilling to sell unless prices rise further.

To summarize the current state of Ukraine’s grain exports, ASAP Agri highlights the following trends for this season:

Corn: Rising demand from Turkey and high domestic prices are creating new export opportunities for Ukrainian exports. However, price competition from the U.S. is making it harder for Ukrainian corn to compete in Spain.
Wheat: Ukraine struggles in Turkey’s wheat market, where import restrictions and Russian dominance leave little room for Ukrainian exports. Meanwhile, Spain remains the largest buyer of Ukrainian wheat, reinforcing its role as a key destination.
Barley: Strong demand from China and the MENA region, combined with tight global supplies, has made barley a highly sought-after commodity. Despite lower shipments, Spain remains a key importer and continues to rely on Ukrainian-origin barley.

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