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UGA forecasts decline in Ukrainian grain harvest for 2024

16 April 20242 min reading

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has projected a potential harvest of 76.1 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds for the upcoming 2024 season. This estimate marks a decrease from the 82.6 million tonnes harvested in 2023. The UGA emphasized that this forecast is contingent upon average weather conditions over the last five years, with the possibility of adjustments depending on developments in spring and summer.

The anticipated decline in the harvest is attributed to a reduction in crop acreage, particularly in cereals. This reduction is driven by unfavorable global price conditions and the relatively high costs associated with export logistics. As a result, exports for the 2024/2025 season are projected to reach approximately 43.7 million tonnes, down from an expected 53.1 million tonnes for the current season, contingent upon smooth operations of the Ukrainian sea corridor and the Danube route.

In terms of specific crops, the UGA forecasts the wheat crop for 2024 at 20 million tonnes, a decrease from 22 million tonnes in 2023. Potential wheat exports for the 2024/2025 marketing year are estimated at around 13 million tonnes, factoring in carry-over stocks of 2.4 million tonnes at the season’s outset.

The UGA also anticipates a corn crop of 26.3 million tonnes in 2024, down from 29.6 million tonnes the previous year. Despite this decrease, potential corn exports could still reach approximately 20.5 million tonnes, albeit lower than the expected 26 million tonnes for the current season.

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