Güneş Birgen
Vice President at Rotel

What makes Türkiye the largest importer of Black Sea grains—yet also one of the world’s top pasta and flour exporters? How has government policy, weather volatility, and changing global dynamics reshaped its grain trade in recent years? What lies ahead for Turkish grain imports, exports, and storage capacity? All the answers are in this comprehensive article.

Türkiye, home to a dynamic economy and a young, growing population, stands as both a major consumer and processor in the global grain value chain. In 2024, the country recorded $262 billion in total exports—up 2.5% from the previous year—while imports declined by 4.9% to $344.1 billion. Agriculture continues to be a cornerstone of Türkiye’s export profile, with record agricultural exports reaching $36.2 billion, accounting for 16% of the country’s total exports.

FROM IMPORTER TO VALUE-ADDED EXPORTER

While Türkiye imports a significant share of its raw agricultural commodities, it has successfully leveraged these imports to become a leading global exporter of processed grain-based foods such as flour, pasta, biscuits, and semolina. Supported by tax exemptions and favorable policies, these value-added exports have turned Türkiye into a food manufacturing powerhouse.

However, recent policy shifts in 2024 placed restrictions on grain imports, even for re-export purposes. To illustrate the impact, consider the country’s wheat flour exports:

• In 2023, Türkiye exported 3.675 million tons of wheat flour, primarily to Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Djibouti, and Venezuela.
• In 2024, this figure declined to 3.022 million tons—a 17.2% drop.

In contrast, pasta exports have maintained their growth trajectory, bolstered by a strong domestic durum wheat harvest:

• 2023: 1.346 million tons
• 2024: 1.458 million tons
• 2025 (projected): 1.5 million tons—potentially positioning Türkiye as the world’s largest pasta exporter.

Additional export figures for 2024 reflect a mixed outlook:

• Bulgur: 244,000 tons (down from 252,000 in 2023)
• Semolina: 92,000 tons (up from 87,000)
• Biscuits: 547,000 tons (up from 522,000)

HOW TÜRKİYE’S GRAIN SECTOR ADAPTED UNDER PRESSURE

Since 2019, the Turkish grain sector has faced a series of disruptions—starting with pandemic-related supply chain shocks and culminating in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. In response, the government introduced various interventions to curb food inflation.

In 2020, import duties on key grains were reduced, and the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) launched a series of international tenders. Between 2020 and 2023, TMO imported massive quantities of milling wheat via tenders as well as through direct government-to-government purchases from Russia.

In 2024, wheat imports were suspended from June 21 to October 15 to manage ballooning stockpiles. A new quota system was introduced thereafter:

• Initially, millers had to source 85% of their wheat from TMO stocks and could import the remaining 15%.
• This ratio later shifted to 25/75 before the quota system was abolished in March 2025.
• Since then, flour exporters have resumed duty-free wheat imports.

These changes significantly curtailed Türkiye’s milling wheat imports, which dropped from 4.911 million tons in the 2023/24 season to just 521,000 tons in 2024/25 (July–December period).

DURUM, CORN, AND BARLEY

Türkiye re-entered the durum wheat export market in 2023, with Italy and North Africa as key buyers. While 2023 marked a strong comeback, high domestic prices limited competitiveness in the most recent season.

Corn production has fluctuated widely. A record 9-million-ton harvest in 2023/24 enabled Türkiye to export about 2.3–2.4 million tons, mainly to Iran and Iraq. However, heat stress during critical growth periods has curtailed yields this season, and corn exports have been paused. Corn imports are continuing under government control with reduced tariffs. A 2-million-ton quota has already been exhausted, with an additional million tons authorized for use through July 2025.

Barley trade has also swung between imports and exports. Consecutive good harvests allowed TMO to build significant barley reserves. These were subsequently reduced through export tenders and private sales, pushing total exports above 1 million tons for the season.

GRAIN STORAGE: LICENSED WAREHOUSING EXPANDS

With grain production totaling around 40 million tons, Türkiye has made major strides in expanding its storage infrastructure. Over the past decade, licensed warehouse capacity has surged past 12 million tons across 225 facilities—almost half located in Central Anatolia. Total approved capacity now exceeds 29 million tons, though not all projects are expected to be completed. By 2030, licensed warehouse capacity is projected to reach approximately 20 million tons.

TMO alone operates 4 million tons of storage capacity. When combined with private facilities and pending investments, total national storage capacity may rise to 35–40 million tons by 2030.

CLIMATIC CHALLENGES AND CROP OUTLOOK

Dry and adverse weather has posed serious challenges in the past two seasons. In 2023, late spring rains salvaged yields, but the 2024 planting season was delayed due to insufficient rainfall, raising concerns over upcoming harvests. Recent precipitation offers some hope for crop recovery, though increased irrigation costs have already raised production expenses.

Preliminary estimates suggest a decrease in both durum and milling wheat production in 2025/26 season:

• Durum wheat crop: Likely below 4 million tons
• Milling wheat crop: Expected under 15 million tons

Barley acreage has declined, while wheat and corn plantings have increased.

IMPORT PROJECTIONS AND MARKET EXPECTATIONS

Wheat imports in the first half of the 2024/25 season (June–November) dropped by more than 40% year-on-year to 1.9 million tons. Although an increase is expected in the second half, full-season imports are projected to stay below 5 million tons—largely supplied by Russia. Should domestic production fall short, 2025/26 imports could exceed 8 million tons. Corn imports will continue unabated, with the new 1-million-ton quota witn zero tax, until harvest.

Looking ahead, strong domestic corn prices—up 40% year-on-year, compared to a 23% increase for wheat—are incentivizing more planting despite official efforts to discourage expansion due to water scarcity.

Finally, oilseed imports are projected to rise steadily over the next five years, growing from 4.41 million metric tons in 2024 to 5.12 million metric tons by 2028—an average annual increase of 3.86%.