Global grain production is set to reach an all-time high of nearly 2.5 billion tons in 2025/26, driven by record wheat and maize harvests. Yet, IGC warns that while exporter stocks are at multi-year highs, uneven regional balances and strong dollar pressures could reshape trade flows in 2026.

At Global Grain Geneva 2025, Alexander Karavaytsev, Senior Economist at the International Grains Council (IGC), presented a comprehensive overview of global grain market fundamentals.

Karavaytsev said total grain production is set to reach an all-time high of nearly 2.5 billion tons in 2025/26, marking the third consecutive record harvest. “The pace of growth has accelerated, and the year-on-year increase will be the largest in nine years,” he told delegates.

The increase is mainly driven by record wheat and maize crops, with maize output projected at 1.3 billion tons and wheat exceeding 800 million tons for the first time. Other coarse grains such as barley, sorghum, and rye are also expected to post moderate gains.

STOCKS REBOUND AFTER THREE YEARS OF DEFICIT

After three seasons of global grain deficits, the IGC now expects production to outpace consumption once again, allowing stocks to recover. “Global inventories are forecast to rise to a three-year high,” Karavaytsev said. “But the devil is in the details.” While stocks in major exporting countries are likely to reach an eight-year high, supplies in the rest of the world could fall to an eleven-year low. This imbalance, he noted, raises the question of whether abundant stocks in key origins could lead to stronger trade flows.

PRICES STABILIZE AT MULTI-YEAR LOWS

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index shows that world prices — which surged to record highs in 2022 after the outbreak of the Black Sea war — have since fallen sharply. By September 2025, the index touched a five-year low, before rebounding slightly on optimism over U.S.–China trade talks and other policy developments. “Even after the recent uptick, global prices remain near multi-year lows, averaging about 3% below last year,” Karavaytsev said.

WHEAT OUTPUT REACHES HISTORIC HIGH

According to IGC estimates, global wheat production will exceed 800 million tons, up 27 million tons year-on-year — roughly equivalent to Ukraine’s total annual crop. The expansion is being driven by higher yields rather than increased acreage, with production up across nearly all major exporters:

European Union: A sharp rebound after favorable summer rains has lifted the EU crop to a ten-year high, easing earlier quality concerns.

Russia: Output is expected at around 86 million tons, with strong spring wheat yields in Siberia offsetting poor conditions in the southern export regions. “Logistics remain the key constraint,” Karavaytsev noted, “as much of the new grain is thousands of kilometers from ports.”

Ukraine: Production has improved to about 25 million tons despite a reduction in planted area since the war began.

U.S. and Canada: Both countries harvested above-average crops and continue to supply high-quality milling wheat.

India and China: Official data point to new records of 117 million tons and 140 million tons respectively.

Argentina and Australia: Both are harvesting large crops, though wet weather in Argentina and late-season rain in Australia may affect quality.

WHEAT CONSUMPTION RISING BUT FACING COMPETITION

Global wheat consumption is forecast to grow 2% year-on-year, the fastest rate in four years, led by food and feed demand. However, Karavaytsev cautioned that cheaper rice and abundant feed grains could temper growth. “Rice prices have fallen nearly 30% compared with last year, while wheat is down only 5%,” he said. “That makes rice more competitive in some markets.” Feed wheat use is rising sharply in Europe — where maize yields have disappointed — but remains stable or lower elsewhere due to substitution with maize and soybean meal.

FREIGHT COSTS, STRONG DOLLAR SHAPE TRADE FLOWS

Freight rates are up about 16% year-on-year, reducing the benefit of lower export prices. On a cost-and-freight basis, import prices are down only about 3% compared with a year ago. Export competition has intensified, with price spreads between major origins narrowing to historically tight levels.

The U.S., once the most competitive, has lost some ground due to a stronger dollar and speculative support from U.S.–China trade expectations.

Argentina continues to offer the lowest FOB prices, while Russia, Ukraine, and France trade in a narrow range, each supported by local factors such as logistics, exchange rates, and farmer selling behavior.

Karavaytsev also noted the growing use of on-farm “silo-bag” storage in Europe, allowing farmers to delay sales. “Millions of tons are being stored in these bags,” he said. “Once they start deteriorating by November or December, we may see renewed selling pressure.”

TRADE TO REBOUND 6 PERCENT

Despite logistical challenges, Black Sea exports are expected to remain strong. Russia’s export pace reached 5 million tons in October and could rise further in November. Ukraine continues to attract solid demand from Algeria and Egypt, supported by better wheat quality this year.

Elsewhere, EU wheat exports may jump by 5 million tons, Australia will benefit from large carryover stocks, and U.S. shipments are running 20% above last year’s pace. Kazakhstan is expanding into new destinations via the Trans-Caspian Corridor and boosting its feed-flour exports to China, equivalent to 2–3 million tons of grain.

Overall, global wheat trade is projected to increase 6% year-on-year, led by Turkey, Asia, and Africa, though still below the 2023/24 record.

MAIZE: THE LARGEST ANNUAL GAIN IN NINE YEARS

Turning to maize, global output is forecast at 1.3 billion tons, up 59 million tons from last year — the largest annual increase in nearly a decade. The United States is leading with a record harvest above 400 million tons, while Brazil and Argentina expect large crops, though ethanol production in Brazil is increasingly diverting grain from export channels. China’s maize harvest is also near record levels, close to 300 million tons, while the EU has suffered multiple production downgrades amid poor weather.

The U.S. will dominate exports with a projected 74 million tons, the highest on record. Brazil’s exports will rise only marginally, while Argentina and Ukraine face competition and logistical hurdles.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK

Summing up, Karavaytsev said the global grain market is entering 2026 with ample supplies, strong demand, and historically high exporter stocks, which will act as a buffer against any future shocks. “Prices remain anchored by abundant supply,” he said. “The recent rebound is largely speculation-driven, not fundamental. But if sentiment shifts and buyers start rebuilding reserves, trade could pick up faster than expected.”

Still, he cautioned that a strong U.S. dollar could weigh on import demand in some countries, particularly in Africa, by reducing purchasing power. “We’re looking at the largest global production increase in nine years,” Karavaytsev concluded. “With exporters’ stocks at multi-year highs, the world grain market is entering 2026 on a more stable footing — though uneven regional balances and logistics costs will continue to shape price dynamics.”

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM ALEXANDER KARAVAYTSEV

• Global grain supply has improved markedly in 2025/26 — representing the largest year-on-year increase in nine years, driven mainly by record wheat and maize harvests.
• Prices remain anchored by ample availabilities, with buyers showing little urgency to secure additional volumes.
• However, further U.S.–China trade developments could provide support and spur renewed buying interest across the market.
• Global consumption is expected to remain strong, though competition from alternative staples such as rice (for food) and soymeal (for feed) is intensifying.
• Trade is set to rebound from last year’s dip, yet a stronger U.S. dollar could weigh on importers’ purchasing power and reshape competitiveness among major exporters.
• Exporter inventories are at multi-year highs, providing both upside potential for trade and a strategic cushion against any future crop failure in 2026/27.