Japan is experiencing a shortage of rice, leading to escalating prices and widespread empty shelves in supermarkets, as demand has outstripped supply. This crisis is fueled by various factors, including adverse weather conditions and consumer hoarding in anticipation of natural disasters, which has raised alarms among both consumers and government officials.

The depletion of rice reserves in Japan has reached critical levels, with current stockpiles at their lowest in over two decades. In August 2024, a spike in table rice demand was observed as consumers prepared for the typhoon season and reacted to warnings from the Japan Meteorological Association about the potential for a mega-earthquake. This panic-driven buying has led to noticeable gaps on store shelves, prompting retailers like Ito-Yokado to impose limits, restricting customers to a single packet of rice per household. 

While Japan produced roughly 6.6 million tons of table rice for domestic consumption in 2023, it also generated an additional 1.3 million tons for non-table purposes, including animal feed, processing, and government reserves. Due to restrictions on government subsidies, this non-table rice cannot be redirected to meet the surging demand for table rice, resulting in local grocery stores struggling to keep this essential item in stock and raising concerns about potential political instability akin to historical rice riots.

SHORTAGES LEAD TO CALLS FOR GOVERNMENT ACTION

Japan’s past rice shortages have often led to civil unrest, as seen during the 1993 Rice Riots, which were triggered by a cold summer that significantly reduced rice supply and forced the government to rely on imports. The current circumstances have evoked memories of these events, with social media amplifying consumer fears through images of bare shelves, increasing the urgency to purchase rice.

The Osaka Prefectural Government noted that by mid-August, 80% of retailers in the region had run out of rice, leading to calls for the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) to release contingency stocks. However, despite the public outcry, MAFF Minister Taku Yamazaki assured that adequate inventories were in place and that the immediate rice shortage was a result of a temporary demand spike due to disaster preparedness.

RICE STOCKS HIT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1999

In response, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida urged MAFF to address distribution challenges and secure a stable rice supply. Minister Yamazaki noted that the arrival of the new rice crop in late August should help restore stability in supply by the end of September. The ministry anticipates that distribution will be fully operational by then, with around 40% of the annual rice shipment expected to be marketed.

Table Rice Production
Demand and Ending Stock (Million MT)

However, the ongoing rice harvest has seen prices soar dramatically, with a 28% increase reported in August compared to the previous year. This surge in prices is directly linked to supply constraints, with reports indicating that farmgate prices for the new crop have risen by 20-40% relative to 2023.

MAFF reports that table rice production decreased year-on-year, while demand has outpaced production since 2021/222. MAFF estimates table rice demand in 2023/24 increased 1.6 percent, or 110,000 tons, to 7.02 million tons while the production of the 2023 crop was 6.61 million tons. In addition, the 2023 crop was affected by heat and drought damage, which impacted the milling yield. As a result, in June 2024, private sector stocks fell sharply by 21 percent from the previous year to 1.56 million MT, the lowest level since 1999.

MAFF attributes the increase in table rice demand in 2023/24 to two factors. One, a relatively moderate increase in price for rice compared to sharper price increases for other food products. And two, an increase in demand for rice from the food service and tourism sectors after a rise in tourism and other economic activities. Furthermore, MAFF noted a temporary increase in demand for disaster preparedness following a serious of natural disasters and warnings in August including a major earthquake in Western Japan, the subsequent Nankai Trough earthquake warning, and typhoon season.

In response to the rice shortage, demand for imported rice has surged. However, rice remains a state-traded product in Japan, with MAFF controlling imports through tenders that regulate the timing and volume of rice entering the country. This system poses challenges for rapidly increasing domestic production, as Japan’s rice acreage reduction policy has decreased farmland used for rice cultivation by 20% over the past decade. Repurposing farmland for rice production is expected to take several years and will be difficult due to the aging demographic of rice farmers—90% of whom are over 60 years old.

Retail Price of 5 KG Rice (Soruce: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Comminications)

To address the challenges posed by climate change, it is vital to cultivate more heat-tolerant rice varieties. Currently, only slightly more than 14% of the rice grown in Japan falls into this category. Ongoing efforts to promote these varieties, coupled with necessary heat mitigation strategies, will be crucial to ensuring productive harvests in the future.

Table Rice Production, Demand and Stocks (Source: MAFF)

While the government is optimistic that the new crop will help alleviate the current crisis, sustainable solutions will require a reassessment of existing policies, investments in younger farmers, and a commitment to environmentally sustainable practices that can adapt to a changing climate.