A potential shift to ENSO-neutral conditions in early 2026 may calm some weather extremes, but rising El Niño odds later in the year are keeping traders focused on yield and logistics risks across South America, Australia and parts of Asia.
U.S. climate forecasters say La Niña is weakening, with a 60% chance the Pacific shifts to ENSO-neutral conditions in February–April 2026. Neutral conditions are expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer, while El Niño probabilities rise later in 2026, refocusing attention on rainfall and temperature swings across key grain regions.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its latest ENSO diagnostic update that atmospheric signals have weakened at times due to subseasonal variability, but still retain La Niña-like elements, including wind-anomaly patterns over the equatorial Pacific.
ENSO-neutral conditions when sea surface temperatures in the key equatorial Pacific region are near average typically reduce the odds of the more disruptive, ENSO-driven rainfall extremes associated with stronger El Niño or La Niña phases, a key variable for grain and oilseed production outlooks.
Market forecasters quoted by Reuters said the transition away from La Niña could increase rainfall potential in Argentina while reducing rainfall odds in north-central Brazil and Southeast Asia, with a developing El Niño later in the year also raising the risk of worsening drought in southeast Australia ahead of the next season.
EL NIÑO ODDS RISE LATER IN 2026
Japan’s Meteorological Agency has also pointed to rising El Niño probabilities later in the year, saying it is equally likely (50%) that El Niño develops in spring or neutral conditions persist, while the chance of El Niño rises to 60% by summer.
For global grain markets, the evolving ENSO path is closely watched because it can influence rainfall and temperature patterns across key producing and exporting regions especially in South America, Australia and parts of Asia affecting yield prospects, logistics disruptions, and price volatility.