Private firms now handle three-quarters of
the country’s wheat purchases as state participation declines to historic lows.
Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, is witnessing a major shift in its grain import landscape as private sector players dramatically expand their presence in the market. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, private companies have boosted their share of wheat imports to 75.8% since the start of the current marketing year in July, while the state’s portion has fallen to 24% — the lowest level in two decades. This transformation marks a historic rebalancing in a trade traditionally dominated by state entities.
Since December 6, Mostakbal Misr, the state agency now responsible for public wheat imports, has altered Egypt’s traditional purchasing methods. Replacing the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), the agency now sources wheat directly from local Egyptian firms and international suppliers on a private basis, moving away from the long-established public tender system. However, traders have raised concerns about the new approach. “Mostakbal Misr still lacks experience in international trade. If the agency’s performance continues like this, in the future I think the private sector will handle most wheat imports,” said a Cairo-based trader, speaking to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
IMPORT TRENDS AND PRICE MOVEMENTS
Egypt imported 3.3 million metric tons (mt) of wheat between July and September 2025 — 626,000 mt less than the same period last year, according to traders’ lineup data. Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights forecast total wheat imports of 13.2 million mt for the 2025–26 season, a modest increase from 12.9 million mt last season, in line with domestic consumption estimated at 20.2 million mt.
As the new season progresses, import demand is expected to strengthen in October, supported by a recovering Egyptian pound after a sluggish September. During that period, domestic ex-works prices were more competitive, offering an $8/mt discount to imported wheat. CIF Egypt bids for 12.5% protein wheat were heard at $252–$253/mt, compared with $255/mt offers for November loadings, while freight rates from Russia to Egypt fell from $23/mt to $21/mt for handysize vessels. According to Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, the Milling Wheat Marker for November loadings was assessed at $231/mt on October 7.
Since July, Egypt has imported 2 million mt of wheat from Russia, down from 2.58 million mt in 2024. By contrast, Ukraine’s share rose sharply to 1 million mt in 2025, up from 334,000 mt a year earlier, as the country looks to expand its market reach in Africa and the Middle East amid EU quota restrictions.
Romania and Bulgaria, once major suppliers, saw steep declines — from 822,000 mt in 2024 to just 149,000 mt this year. Market participants also reported limited French wheat purchases by the state during the July–August period, when Black Sea prices were relatively high.