The 8th edition of the Grain Academy, held on October 31st in Varna on the scenic Black Sea coast, brought together over 300 participants from nearly 20 countries across the Balkans, Central, and Eastern Europe. With a dynamic agenda, the event featured panels addressing crucial topics ranging from global supply and demand for grains and oilseeds to an exclusive session on the Balkan market, insights on Bulgaria’s domestic sector, and critical discussions around fertilizers, climate impact, and shipping logistics.

This year’s attendees enjoyed a unique opportunity to listen, learn, and connect with industry peers in an inviting networking atmosphere, fostering new business relationships and collaborative partnerships.

Amid increasingly extreme weather patterns affecting recent seasons, Balkan farmers are facing hotter and drier summers, which has driven them to explore crop alternatives and resilient varieties. Traditional wheat varieties are now being complemented by new cereals, such as sorghum, and durum wheat is gaining traction in Bulgaria and Romania. This season’s durum wheat crop was of exceptional quality, with strong export flows to Italy, Greece, and North Africa. With the acreage dedicated to durum wheat on the rise, forecasts indicate that this trend will continue to expand.

Additionally, faced with declining crop prices and narrowing profit margins, farmers are pivoting toward high-protein wheat varieties. The growth of the milling industry across the Balkan region is further bolstering this shift, as demand for specialty wheat flour increases. Millers are actively encouraging farmers to produce high-protein wheat by offering premium prices, which has led to Bulgaria and Romania emerging as reliable suppliers of 14%-plus protein wheat to meet the evolving demands of the industry.

CVB REGION EMERGES AS A KEY PLAYER IN GLOBAL WHEAT MARKET

Balkan nations are strengthening their presence in the international milling wheat market, with the so-called CVB (Constanta/Varna/Burgas) region becoming a key benchmark in the Black Sea grain sector. In recent years, wheat exports from Bulgaria and Romania have dominated tenders for Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt, capturing over 35% of Algeria's imports. Additionally, CVB-origin wheat is beginning to penetrate West African markets, traditionally supplied by 12.5%-protein wheat from the Baltics. 

As global buyers diversify sourcing away from Russia and Ukraine to secure more predictable supply chains, the CVB region’s share in global wheat exports is set to grow, positioning the Balkans as a significant player in the global grain landscape. 

The Grain Academy highlighted these transformative shifts in the Balkan grain market, emphasizing the region's potential to navigate complex challenges and capitalize on new growth opportunities in the international arena.

GLOBAL WHEAT SUPPLY FACES TIGHTEST STOCKS SINCE 2007/08

Speaking at the first session of the conference, Benoit Fayaud, Senior Manager for Grains and Crops Analysis at Stratégie Grains, forecasted that global wheat production for the 2024/25 marketing year will remain stable at approximately 755 million tonnes, slightly below the record high of 2022/23. He noted significant decreases in production within the European Union (EU) due to adverse wet conditions and in Russia due to late frosts impacting winter wheat. However, these declines are counterbalanced by increased production in North America, Australia, and China.

Barley production is expected to stabilize at 143 million tonnes, although still below the 5-year average due to limited cultivated areas. While the EU's barley production has shown slight recovery, Russia has experienced a downturn. Corn production is projected to increase moderately, with anticipated declines in the USA and Ukraine due to unfavorable growing conditions. The overall demand for wheat and maize is expected to rise, reflecting long-term growth trends, particularly in the food and industrial sectors. However, the feed sector remains uncertain, potentially leading to an overall increase in grain demand.

Fayaud emphasized a tightening wheat market, predicting lower global ending stocks for 2024/25—the tightest since the 2007/08 marketing year. Additionally, he forecasted a critical situation for the global barley market, driven by increased demand in regions such as the EU, which will need to substitute wheat in feed. The corn market is anticipated to finish the year in a delicate equilibrium, with contrasting stock levels between Eastern EU/Black Sea and the USA.

BALKAN WHEAT’S PATH TO MENA AND ASIA

Deian Atanassov, Senior Merchant at Cargill Bulgaria, discussed the export potential of the Constanta/Varna/Burgas (CVB) area, highlighting its strategic importance in connecting Danube, Bulgarian, and Romanian exports, especially with the influx of Ukrainian goods post-war. He noted a consistent regional wheat production of around 20 million metric tonnes, allowing for exports of 12 to 14 million metric tonnes. While this volume lags behind Russian and Ukrainian ports, the CVB area benefits from reliability, with a noticeable shift in Bulgarian exports from the EU to MENA and Southeast Asia.

Atanassov also addressed challenges in corn production due to consistently hot and dry summers, which are becoming a concerning trend. He indicated that Bulgaria faces one of its weakest corn crops, unlikely to meet local consumption demands. Additionally, he highlighted Bulgaria's transformation from a sunflower seed exporter to a net importer, facing difficulties in sourcing the necessary seeds for its processing capacity.

DURUM WHEAT TRADING INSIGHTS

Theodore Marinakis, Trader and Operations Manager at Greece-based Soya Hellas, shared insights from his experience in durum wheat trading, discussing the complexities and unique challenges of this niche commodity. He noted that durum wheat experiences sharper price fluctuations than soft wheat and corn due to changes in supply and demand. Canada remains a dominant player in global durum production, while Italy relies heavily on imports. Marinakis analyzed recent market events, including a price spike in July 2023 linked to adverse weather and Turkey's renewed export activity.

He highlighted the need for contractual farming approaches to enhance the value of domestic crops, aiming to stabilize supply chains for both producers and millers amid ongoing market volatility.

CLIMATE CHALLENGES IN CROP PRODUCTION

Natalja Skuratovic, Senior Account Executive at EarthDaily Agro, presented data on how weather patterns impact crop planting and harvesting across various regions, including Brazil, Argentina, the EU, Australia, and the Black Sea region, utilizing satellite data. She confirmed that persistently wet conditions have disrupted field operations in France, delaying corn and sunflower harvests and wheat sowing. Excess moisture has also been problematic in parts of England, France, Spain, and Italy, while dryness has aided sowing in Western Europe. Skuratovic noted that while favorable rains were received in Eastern Ukraine, further moisture is still necessary for optimal wheat sowing conditions.

During the conference, Namık Kemal Parlak, the editor of Miller Magazine, captivated the audience with his insightful presentation on Turkey's grain harvest, grain policies, and the dynamic milling industry.